AB InBev King of beers but growth rates coming down

ABI's organic volume growth has been negative in 2023 and 2024E. Whilst part of the poor volume performance stems from the US Bud Light woes, we wonder what the role of price elasticity and structural changes in consumer habits might be and decided to lower our structural volume growth forecast until the end of the decade to only 1%. Taking into account persistent negative FX headwinds, we forecast a 3.5% adjusted EBITDA CAGR until 2030, or +4% on an organic basis (at the low end of the mid term 4-8% guidance range). Our structural organic EBITDA growth forecasts are below historic performances (4.0% between 2024E-2030 vs 5.6% average between 2017-2024E), partly due to the absence of acquisition synergies which supported performance in the past. Despite lower growth, we still see ABI as the undisputed leader in the beer space, with leading market shares in many markets, ongoing digitization and premiumization trends allowing to generate healthy free cash flows. Valuation remains attractive with EV/EBITDA25e at 8.5x and FCF yield25e at 7.9% and prompts us to reiterate BUY rating, albeit with a target price lowered from € 75 to € 65.