AB InBev Model update after CMD: abating inflation pressure offsets US weakness
Following the CMD, we decided to increase our normalized EBITDA forecasts for 2023 and the following years by a 2-3% range. We remind that ABI is sticking to its medium term organic EBITDA growth ambition of 4-8%. Market share trends in the US have stabilized in recent months with a c. 5 percentage point loss y/y since the Bud Light woes started in April. Leverage is no longer a major issue but still prompts ABI to focus on organic growth, with key levers including ao premiumization, beyond beer and digitization. Despite the uncertainty on the US market, we still appreciate ABI for its leadership positions in the global beer market, high intrinsic profitability and LT growth prospects in its emerging & developing markets businesses. With valuation multiples attractive, we maintain our BUY rating and € 75 TP.Anheuser-Busch Inbev is engaged in the brewing of beer. Co. manages a portfolio of well over 200 brands that includes brands such as Budweiser, Stella Artois and Beck's; multi-country brands such as Leffe and Hoegaarden; and other brands such as Bud Light, Skol, Brahma, Quilmes, Michelob, Harbin, Sedrin, Klinskoye, Sibirskaya Korona, Chernigivske and Jupiler. Co. also produces and distributes soft drinks, particularly in Latin America. Co.'s operations are organized along seven business segments: North America, Mexico, Latin America North, Latin America South, Europe, Asia Pacific and Global Export & Holding Companies.
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