Autolus Upping our Aucatzyl sales estimates in r/r ALL

Last week, Autolus reported 3Q25 results. Autolus reported 3Q25 sales of $21.1m, bringing the total for 9M25 to $51m. In our launch preview published in January 2025, we estimated Aucatzyl could generate $43m in FY25 sales vs. $37m CSS estimate. Ours and CSS initial estimates turned out to be conservative given that Aucatzyl generated $51m in 9M25. As such, we increase our Aucatzyl FY25 sales estimate in the US to $72.5m, and increase our peak market share to 50% (from 40%) supported by strong initial uptake and positive real world data. In addition, we replace EU r/r adult ALL sales with paediatric r/r ALL sales in the US. All in all, this brings us to a new TP of $9 (from $10). With upside to the current valuation, we reiterate our BUY rating.