DEME Model update after a rock solid 1H24

We have raised our FY24E forecast as DEME - building on the strong 1H24 results - has raised its full-year revenue guidance, now expecting revenue growth of around 20% (previously above 10%).
However, the positive impact on our valuation of this is mitigated by a slightly lower revenue forecast for FY26E and beyond, as DEME expects revenue for the next few years to be in line with FY24, taking into account current project schedules in the backlog and pipeline for new projects, as well as vessel capacity.

With EBITDA margins of 18.4% in FY24E to 19.1% in FY27E, we are at the upper end of DEME's guidance (FY24 EBITDA margin comparable to FY23 (18.2%) and between 16 and 20% from FY25E).
We welcome that the orderbook (€7.62bn) remains high with increases for Offshore Energy and Environmental offset the slight decrease in Dredging & Infra.

We have a DCF-based target price of €190 and a Buy rating.