DEME Trump's win likely bolstering opposition to the US offshore wind sector

Buildout of US offshore wind capacity is at stake after today's US presidential election, with a win by Donald Trump likely bolstering opposition to the sector and slowing permitting, while a win by Kamala Harris would have continued the Biden administration's goal of building 30 GW by 2030. Once Trump gets into office, we can see an aggressive slowdown or even a pause of further permit reviews or further lease sales.
We maintain our positive stance on Deme, although with a lower TP than before (from € 190 To € 175), as we think a lot is already in the share price and we think the market overreacted on DEME's 1H24 results when DEME indicated that for the next few years, they expect the topline to be in line with 2024, taking into account the current project schedules in the backlog and pipeline for new projects along with vessel capacity, with the EBITDA margin to range between 16 and 20%. Our model takes into account that DEME -building on this strong results in the first half- has raised after its 1H24 results its turnover outlook for the full year and anticipated revenue growth of around 20% (was above 10% before) with an EBITDA margin comparable to 2023.