EnergyVision 1H25 Results: Successful start amid market challenges

EnergyVision's 1H results were in line with our expectations. Overall EBITDA came in at €15.2m, up 47% YoY. This is short of our expected €38m for FY25, but the company confirmed the mid-term outlook of the prospectus. For 2H25, higher valorization of energy flows are expected as the model picks up speed (€2.7m 1H25 vs €0.4m 1H24). The core ABE business' REBITDA was up 70% at €10.8m, on track beating our FY25 €21.1m target. Also note that the radiation was exceptionally low in January-March, and that a growing solar company will typically have a better second half as more installed capacity comes online. For the ABM segment REBITDA was €1.2m, in line with our FY25 target of €2.6m. The company also won the NMBS tender with 5k charging points to be built over the next two years. EPC's REBITDA stood at €3.5m, seemingly far from our €11.1m FY25 target, but EPC deliveries are skewed to 2H, and there is a contribution delay from 1H25. Note that sales can vary significantly due to gas price fluctuations, but this has no impact on our EBITDA est., nor valuation. The EBITDA growth in the ABE division is the key driver. Accumulate and €13.0 TP reiterated.