ODDO : US tariffs: primarily indirect impacts for stocks that are once again trading at all-time lows

ODDO : Droits de douane US : des impacts surtout indirects pour des valeurs qui traitent à nouveau à des plus bas historiques

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 04/15/2025

Heineken Feedback conference call

Below are the highlights of the conference call. As previously hinted at, Heineken did report a fairly weak 1Q trading update with beer volumes down 2.1%, impacted ao by the timing of Easter, Tet and one trading day less. Importantly, Heineken did stick to its FY25 guidance range of 4-8% organic operating profit (beia) growth. We still appreciate Heineken for the earnings recovery potential in coming years, supported by sizeable cost savings initiatives (€ 400m/y). We maintain our Accumulate rating and € 100 target price.

Heineken FIRST LOOK: 1Q beer volume -2.1%, FY guidance maintained

As previously hinted at, Heineken did report a fairly weak 1Q trading update with beer volumes down 2.1%, impacted ao by the timing of Easter, Tet and one trading day less. Importantly, Heineken did stick to its FY25 guidance range of 4-8% organic operating profit (beia) growth. We still appreciate Heineken for the earnings recovery potential in coming years, supported by sizeable cost savings initiatives (€ 400m/y). We maintain our Accumulate rating and € 100 target price.

ASML Weaker order intake, disappointing 2Q25 outlook, strong GPm

ASML 1Q25 revenues were in line with expectation and EPS was better than expected. However, the order intake and 2Q25 outlook are below CSS. The EPS outperformance in 1Q25 was driven by the strong GPm. ASML sold more expensive EUV tools at a richer configuration and due to the fact that they met customer-specific performance targets. The outlook for 2025 remains unchanged. If uncertainties continue ASML sees FY25 revenues at the low end of the guided € 30-35bn range. AI demand could drive the high end of the range although we expect FY25 revenues closer to the low end of the range as we expect...