Solvay Taking a more prudent earnings scenario, lowering target price
After a weak start of the year with a 6% decline in adjusted EBITDA in 1Q25, Solvay now expects FY25 adjusted EBITDA to land in the lower half of the previously given guidance range of € 1.0-1.1bn and we have set our new forecast close to the bottom end of this range. Weak macro conditions, which is mainly visible in soda ash, are for the moment more than offsetting the good progress with efficiency improvement measures. With current EBITDA generation, almost all FCF is absorbed to pay the high and committed dividend of € 2.43. Whilst we still appreciate Solvay for the high dividend yield it is offering (7.8%), it is hard to find a catalyst for the share. On the back of the attractive valuation and dividend yield, we maintain our Accumulate rating, albeit with a TP that is lowered from € 40 to € 38.Solvay is engaged in chemical and plastic businesses worldwide. Co. offers chemical products such as advanced materials, barium strontium, calcium chloride, caustic soda, chlorinated products, fluor, peroxygen products, polyglycerols, precipitated calcium carbonate, soda ash, and sodium bicarbonate. It also provides specialty polymers, such as Spire ultra polymers, Solviva biomaterials, and sulfone polymers. Co. structures its activities around five operating segments: Advanced Formulations, Advanced Materials, Performance Chemicals, Functional Polymers and Corporate & Business Services, each with its own specific business model and each comprised of Global Business Units (GBUs).
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