TINC FY25 Results: Revised model forecasts an attractive 5.9% NAV yield

In light of TINC's FY25 results, we have updated our model and projections. In FY25, the portfolio fair value rose to €713.2m, up 39.3% from FY24-end. This is ahead of our prior expectation and reflects record investments of €225.6m combined with solid unrealised value creation. We improved our long-term growth assumptions for the Social segment, driven by the new higher growth investments. We incorporate the remaining €103.1m in contractual commitments (mostly 2026–2028) and an estimated €70.0m in new investments over the coming years. This results in an increase expected NAV from ~€793m or €16.4ps to ~€818m or €16.9ps for FY30. This represents a ~5.9% CAGR (including dividends), an attractive return. We estimate the current €200m credit facility provides a 2-year runway. Due to the relatively low risk profile, we believe a 0% target discount is warranted. For next year, we forecast a NAV of €674m or 13.9ps. We maintain our conviction that TINC is on track to double its portfolio to €1.0bn by 2030.