Aussie Equities Month in Review (September 2019)
- The ASX 200 shrugged off a poor reporting season and another barrage of downgrades in September to gain 1.8% during the month.
- Australia (22.6%) and New Zealand (24%) are amongst the strongest performing developed equity markets year-to-date underpinned by their relatively high dividend yield.
- Financials (4.1%) benefitted from global curve steepening and Consumer Discretionary (3.0%) benefited from lower domestic interest rates, while Energy caught a bid from the escalation of tensions between Iran and the US.
- Australia is now expensive, with the earnings bar now lowered to a level more in line with our expectations of 5% (12-months forward) vs 10% at the start of reporting season.
- Consistent with the PE expansion and weakening earnings growth backdrop, consensus EPS estimates show above average uncertainty in Materials, Financials and IT.
- Retail trade data was weak again in July vs market expectations and GDP in Q2 rose by a tepid 0.5%.
- SGM was the only stock that lowered guidance, despite the barrage of downgrades across the market.
AGL Energy is a renewable energy company, serving customers throughout eastern Australia. Co. has four segments: Energy Market, which sells electricity, natural gas, and energy related products and services to consumer market, business and wholesale customers, servicing approximately 3.7 million customer accounts as of June 30 2016; Group Operations, a diverse power generation portfolio; New Energy, which focuses on taking new and distributed technologies to market in Australia, including AGL Solar, and Distributed Energy Services such as Active Stream, its digital meter installation and data provider business; and Investment, which include investments in various energy related business.
Beach Energy is engaged in oil and gas exploration, development and production and investment in the resources industry. Co.'s operating segments include Cooper Basin, which includes oil and gas sales from Australian production; Other Australia, which includes Co.'s interest in all on-shore and off-shore production and exploration tenements within Australia other than the Cooper Basin; and International interests, which includes Co.'s interests in all areas outside Australia and oil and gas sales from Egyptian production. As of June 30 2016, Co. had total proved and probable reserve estimate of 69.8 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides integrated financial services including retail, business and institutional banking, funds management, superannuation, life insurance, general insurance, broking services and finance company activities. Co. operates in seven segments, Retail banking Services, Business and Private Banking, Institutional Banking and Markets, Wealth Management, New Zealand, Bankwest, as well as International Financial Services and Other Divisions. As of June 30 2016, Co. had total assets of A$933.1 million and total deposits of A$588.0 million.
Computershare is engaged in the operation of investor services, which provides registry maintenance and related services; plan services, which provides administration and related services for employee share and option plans; communication services, which comprise document composition and printing, intelligent mailing, among others; business services, which provides bankruptcy, class action and utilities administration services, voucher services, corporate trust services and mortgage servicing activities; stakeholder relationship management services, which provides investor analysis, investor communication and management information services; and technology services.
Newcrest Mining is engaged in the exploration, mine development, mine operations and the sale of gold and gold/copper concentrate. As of June 30 2016, Co.'s reportable operating segments were: Cadia, Australia; Telfer, Australia; Lihir, Papua New Guinea (PNG); Gosowong, Indonesia; Hidden Valley Joint Venture (JV) (50% interest), PNG; Bonikro, COte d'Ivoire; and Exploration and Other, which mainly comprises projects in the exploration, evaluation and feasibility phase and includes Wafi-Golpu JV (50% interest) in PNG, Namosi JV (70.67% interest) in Fiji, O'Callaghans in Australia and Co.'s global greenfields exploration portfolio.
About us:
- The business is a Proprietary Limited Australian company that is owned and fully operated by Shane Lee from a small office in Sydney’s CBD.
- Shane worked for 17 years in Sydney-based senior research roles (economist, equity strategist and bond strategist) in global and regional investment banks and a domestic commercial bank prior to starting Macro Strategy Advisors. These roles straddled the asset classes making him uniquely positioned to advise multi-asset investors. He worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for 3 years as a housing, commercial property and equity market analyst and a liquidity forecasting specialist. He worked as a structural engineer in Queensland for 10 years prior to his career at the RBA.
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- We also in work in confidence to investigate, analyse and report on issues at our clients direction. This work is done on a project-by-project basis.
- As an Australian based business, the main focus is analysing how domestic and global issues impact Australian investors. However, our global and domestic insights are also valued by our offshore clients.
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- Shane’s background in engineering has provided clients with unique insights into global infrastructure and domestic housing issues.
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