Report
EUR 115.15 For Business Accounts Only

Holding the Reigns on Aussie Value Stocks

  • Stick to Growth.  Growth has outperformed Value by 10%pts year-to-date and we expect its outperformance to continue for the remainder of the year, given the limited opportunities for a sustainable upswing in earnings growth and market pricing that is already stretched.
  • Cheap stocks with Mispriced longer-term Earnings.
  • Value Traps Persist.  There are many stocks within the ASX200 universe that look attractive because they are cheap.
  • Be wary of Junior Miners and Consumer Discretionary stocks.
  • Cheap Banks with a relatively high bar for cashflow growth. 

 

Underlyings
Amcor PLC Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh

Amcor is a packaging company. Co. has the following reportable segments: Amcor Rigid Plastics, which manufactures rigid plastic containers for a range of primarily beverage and food products; Amcor Flexibles, which represents the aggregation of four operating segments of which each manufactures flexible and film packaging for their respective industries; as well as Other/Investments, which holds Co.'s equity accounted investments in the associate AMVIG Holdings Limited (AMVIG) and the joint venture Discma AG (Discma). AMVIG is mainly involved in the manufacture of tobacco packaging while Discma's operations primarily relate to the development and licensing of packaging product development.

AMP Limited

AMP is a wealth management company in Australia and New Zealand, with an international investment management business and a retail banking business in Australia. Co. provides retail customers in Australia and New Zealand with financial advice, superannuation, retirement income and investment products. Co. also provides superannuation services for businesses, administration, banking and investment services for self-managed superannuation funds, income protection, disability and life insurance, and selected banking products. As of Dec 31 2015, Co. had total assets under management of A$226.00 billion.

Bank of Queensland Limited

Bank of Queensland is involved in providing retail banking, leasing finance, and insurance products, to its customers. Co. operates in two segments, Banking and Insurance. The Banking segment is engaged in retail banking, commercial, personal, small business loans, equipment, debtor finance, treasury, savings and transaction accounts. The Insurance segment is engaged in customer credit insurance, life insurance, accidental death insurance, funeral insurance and motor vehicle gap insurance. As of Aug 31 2016, Co. had total assets of $50.85 billion and total deposits of $36.72 billion.

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd.

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank provides a range of banking and other financial services including consumer, residential, business and commercial lending, deposit-taking, payments services, wealth management, funds management and superannuation, treasury and foreign exchange services. Co. provides these services primarily to retail customers and small to medium sized businesses throughout Australia. The key lending activities are commercial finance, business lending and consumer finance which includes residential loans, personal loans, credit cards and overdrafts. As of June 30 2016, Co. had total assets of A$68.58 billion and total deposits of A$57.05 billion.

Brambles Limited

Brambles is a supply-chain logistics company operating primarily through the CHEP and IFCO brands. Co. has three segments: Pallets segment, which primarily serves the consumer goods, fresh produce and beverage industries, and sub-divided into three regions: Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and Asia-Pacific; Reusable Plastic or Produce Crates segment, which serves the fresh produce and food industry and comprising the IFCO RPC pooling business worldwide and the CHEP RPC pooling businesses in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa; and Containers segment, which comprises four business units: Automotive, Intermediate Bulk Containers, Oil and Gas, and Aerospace.

Computershare Limited

Computershare is engaged in the operation of investor services, which provides registry maintenance and related services; plan services, which provides administration and related services for employee share and option plans; communication services, which comprise document composition and printing, intelligent mailing, among others; business services, which provides bankruptcy, class action and utilities administration services, voucher services, corporate trust services and mortgage servicing activities; stakeholder relationship management services, which provides investor analysis, investor communication and management information services; and technology services.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd

Fortescue Metals Group is an iron ore producer. As of June 30 2016, Co.'s operations had four mine sites in the Pilbara. The Chichester Hub, which includes the Cloudbreak and Christmas Creek mines, is located in the Chichester Ranges and the Solomon Hub, in the Hamersley Ranges, includes the Firetail and Kings Valley mines. Co. owns and operates an integrated supply chain including its Herb Elliott Port in Port Hedland and a heavy haul railway with over 620km of track. As of June 30 2016, Co.'s total hematite ore proved and probable reserves were 2.17 billion tonnes. Also, as of June 30 2016, Co.'s total magnetite ore proved and probable reserves were 705.0 million tonnes.

G8 Education Limited

G8 Education is engaged in the operation of early education centres owned by Co., and ownership of early education centre franchises. Co. operates in Australia and Singapore.

Greencross

Greencross is a pet care company providing veterinary services. Co. provides a network of retail stores, veterinary clinics, grooming salons and dog-wash facilities across Australia and New Zealand. As of June 30 2016, Co. had over 220 stores operating under the brands Petbarn and City Farmers and over 150 clinics including general practices, specialty and emergency centres. Co. also provides a range of additional pet care services such as crematoria, pet adoption, puppy behavioral training, pet insurance and pet hotels. In addition to selling pet food and accessories via its store and clinic network, Co. also has an online business serving the Australian and New Zealand pet care market.

Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd

Harvey Norman Holdings is engaged in integrated retail, franchise, property and digital system. Co.'s business activities include: franchisor; sale of furniture, bedding, computers, communications and consumer electrical products in New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Slovenia, Ireland, Northern Ireland and Croatia; property investment; lessor of premises to Harvey Norman®, Domayne® and Joyce Mayne® franchisees and other third parties; media placement; and provision of consumer finance and other commercial advances.

IOOF Holdings Ltd

IOOF Holdings is engaged in the financial services industry. Co. provides a range of wealth management solutions for Australians, including: financial advice and distribution services via its network of financial advisers and stockbrokers; platform management and administration such as superannuation and investment administration platforms for advisers, their clients and employers in Australia; investment management products that are designed for investors; and trustee services, including estate planning and administration, personal trustee services, self-managed super fund solutions and corporate trust.

Janus Henderson Group

JB Hi-Fi Limited

JB Hi Fi is engaged in the retailing of home consumer products. Co. provides a range of brands with particular focus on consumer electronics, software including music, games and movies, whitegoods and appliances.

Magellan Financial Group Ltd

Magellan Financial Group is engaged in funds management, providing international investment funds to high net worth and retail investors in Australia and New Zealand, and institutional investors globally. Co.'s main operating company is Magellan Asset Management Limited (MAM). Co.'s key operating segments are: Funds Management, in which MAM undertakes the funds management activities and MFG Services LLC acts as a service company providing MAM with services of investment analysts and distribution personnel; and Principal Investments, which include investments in the ASX Quoted Funds, the Unlisted Magellan Funds, and a select portfolio comprising Australian and international listed companies.

Oil Search Limited

Oil Search is engaged in the exploration, development and production of oil and gas deposits in Papua New Guinea. This is carried out as both the operator of producing and exploration joint ventures and as a non-operator participant in exploration and production joint ventures. Co.'s properties include the Kutubu oil project, Central Moran oil project, Gobe oil project, Hides GTE project, SE Mananda field, and Nabrajah. Co. also has interests in seven concession areas in Yemen, three concession areas in Egypt, and one concession area in Libya. Co. maintains operations in Papua New Guinea, Yemen, Egypt, Libya, Iraq, Tunisia, and Australia.

Orocobre Limited

Orocobre is engaged in the project funding arrangements and subsequent construction of Co.'s flagship Olaroz lithium project, resource definition at Cauchari, long term pumping test results at Salinas Grandes, the acquisition of and the subsequent operations at, Borax Argentina S.A.

Orora Ltd.

Orora is engaged in providing a range of packaging solutions. Co.'s operating segments include: Orora Australasia, which focuses on the manufacture of fibre and beverage packaging products within Australia and New Zealand, and its manufactured products include glass bottles, beverage cans, wines closures, corrugated boxes, cartons and sacks, and recycled paper; and Orora North America, which primarily located in North America, is engaged in purchasing, warehousing, selling and delivering a range of packaging and other related materials, and its business also includes integrated corrugated sheet and box manufacturing and equipment sales capabilities.

OZ Minerals Limited

OZ Minerals is a mining company engaged in exploring for, developing and operating copper, gold and base metal projects. It owns the Prominent Hill copper-gold mine and Carrapateena copper-gold project, both located in South Australia. Co.'s operating segments are: Prominent Hill, which comprised of mining copper, gold and silver from the Prominent Hill Mine; Carrapateena, which comprised of exploration and evaluation associated with the Carrapateena project; Exploration and Development, which comprised of exploration and evaluation activities associated with the other projects and include interests and joint ventures with Minotaur and Toro Energy Ltd, and Corporate Development activities.

Perpetual Limited

Perpetual is engaged in funds management, portfolio management, financial planning, trustee, responsible entity and compliance services, executor services, investment administration and custody services. Co. operates in three segments: perpetual investments, which is a manufacturer of financial products, management and investment of monies on behalf of private, corporate, superannuation and institutional clients; perpetual private, which provides a range of investment and non-investment products and services; and perpetual corporate trust, which provides fiduciary services incorporating safe-keeping and recording of assets and transactions as custodian.

Platinum Asset Management Ltd

Platinum Asset Management is a non-operating holding company of Platinum Investment Management Limited. Co.'s subsidiary, Platinum Investment Management Limited, trades as Platinum Asset Management, operates a funds management business. Co. has two main operating segments: funds management, and investments and other.

Regis Resources Limited

Regis Resources is a gold producer. Co. and its controlled entities are engaged in the production of gold from the Duketon Gold Project; exploration, evaluation and development of gold projects in the Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia; and exploration and evaluation of the McPhillamys Gold Project in New South Wales. Co. has two reportable segments which comprise the Duketon Gold Project; being Duketon North Operations, comprising the Moolart Well Gold Mine, and Duketon South Operations, incorporating the Garden Well Gold Mine and the Rosemont Gold Mine.

Sandfire Resources Limited

Sandfire Resources is a mining and exploration company. Co. is engaged in the production and sale of copper, gold and silver; and the exploration and evaluation of mineral tenements and projects in Australia and overseas. Co. has two operating segments: The DeGrussa Copper Mine, a copper-gold mine located in the Bryah Basin mineral province of Western Australia; and Exploration and evaluation, which includes exploration and evaluation of the mineral tenements in Australia and overseas, including exploring for potential repeats of the DeGrussa Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide mineralised system at the Doolgunna Projects and Co.'s investment in Tintina Resources Inc and WCB Resources Ltd.

Seven West Media

Seven West Media has four reportable segments: Television, which is engaged in the production and operation of commercial television programming and stations; Newspapers, which is comprised of the publishers of newspapers and insert magazines in Western Australia, Quokka (weekly classified advertising publication), Colourpress, Digital publishing and West Australian Publishers; Pacific -which is comprised of the publishers of magazines in print and digital editions as well as social and e-commerce business; as well as Other Business and New Ventures, which is made up of equity accounted investees; Radio (radio stations broadcasting in regional areas of Western Australia) and RED Live..

Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group RE Ltd.

Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group is an internally managed real estate investment trust. Co. is comprised of Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group Re Limited, the responsible entity to the Shopping Centres Australasia Property Management Trust and Shopping Centres Australasia Property Retail Trust. The units of each Trust are stapled together to form a stapled listed vehicle. Co. owns and manages a portfolio of sub-regional and neighbourhood shopping centres and freestanding retail assets. Co.'s portfolio is focused on convenience retailing. As of June 30 2016, Co. had a total of 83 operating properties, including 69 in Australia and 14 in New Zealand.

Smartgroup

SmartGroup Corporation is engaged in salary packaging and vehicle services business. Co.'s salary packaging business comprises salary packaging administration services as well as associated novated leaseing services and vehicle services business comprises outsourced fleet management and associated products. Co.'s brands include Smartsalary, SeQoya, PBI Solutions, Smartleasing, Smartfleet and Tailored Automotive Insurance (TAINS).

Spark Infrastructure Group

Spark Infrastructure is engaged in investing in regulated electricity distribution and transmission businesses in Australia. Co. reportable segments are: Victoria Power Networks, which represent the 49.0% interest in two electricity distribution businesses in Victoria; SA Power Networks, which represent the 49.0% interest in the electricity distribution business in South Australia; TransGrid, which represent the 15.01% interest in the electricity transmission business in New South Wales; and Other which represents the economic interest in DUET Group, an Australian Securities Exchange listed entity head quartered in New South Wales.

Super Retail Group Limited

Super Retail Group's main activities are result in the following business segments: Auto, which include retailing of auto parts and accessories, tools and equipment; Leisure, which include retailing of boating, camping, outdoor equipment, fishing equipment and apparel; and Sports, which include retailing of sporting equipment, bicycles, bicycles accessories and apparel. Co.'s principal brands include Amart Sports for sports products such as equipment, apparel and associated accessories; BCF for an outdoor retailer; Rays for an outdoor entertainment and camping leisure retailer; Rebel for sporting and goods such as fitness equipment; and Supercheap Auto for automotive parts and accessories.

Syrah Resources Limited

Syrah Resources is a resource company based in Australia. Co.'s principal activities consisted of the development and construction of the Balama Graphite Project in Mozambique; continued assessment of the use of graphite from the Balama Graphite Project as an input into the production of spherical graphite and recarburiser products; and ongoing exploration and evaluation studies, including further technical investigations into the potential to extract and produce vanadium from the Balama Graphite Project ore body.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited

Treasury Wine Estates is engaged in viticulture and winemaking, and the marketing, sale and distribution of wine. Co.'s wine portfolio includes wine brands such as Penfolds, Beringer, Lindeman's, Wolf Blass, Stags' Leap, Chateau St Jean, Beaulieu Vineyard and Sterling Vineyards. Co. also distributes beer and cider under license in New Zealand and provides contract bottling services to third parties. Co. maintains its operations in four regions: Australia and New Zealand, Asia, Europe, and Americas.

Western Areas Limited

Western Areas Limited is an Australia-based mining company. The Company's principal activities include mining, processing and sale of nickel sulfide concentrate, the continued assessment of development feasibility of the high-grade nickel mines, and the exploration for nickel sulfides, other base metals and platinum group metals. The Company has nickel production assets in Australia and base metals development projects across Australia, Canada and Finland. The Company's Forrestania project includes two nickel mines, Flying Fox and Spotted Quoll; the Cosmic Boy Concentrator, which treats the ore and produces nickel concentrate for sale; a regional tenement package, and site infrastructure, including a 450-bed accommodation village, grid connected power, water management network, airstrip and nickel concentrate export facilities.

Westpac Banking Corporation

Westpac Banking is a banking organization with branches, affiliates and controlled entities throughout Australia, New Zealand, Asia and in the Pacific region. Co. provides a range of banking and financial services in these markets, including consumer, business and institutional banking and wealth management services. Co. is engaged in the provision of financial services including lending, deposit taking, payments services, investment portfolio management and advice, superannuation and funds management, insurance services, leasing finance, general finance, interest rate risk management and foreign exchange services. As of Sep 30 2017, Co. had total assets of A$851,875,000,000.

Provider
Macro Strategy Advisors Pty Ltd
Macro Strategy Advisors Pty Ltd

About  us:

  • The business is a Proprietary Limited Australian company that is owned and fully operated by Shane Lee from a small office in Sydney’s CBD.
  • Shane worked for 17 years in Sydney-based senior research roles (economist, equity strategist and bond strategist) in global and regional investment banks and a domestic commercial bank prior to starting Macro Strategy Advisors. These roles straddled the asset classes making him uniquely positioned to advise multi-asset investors. He worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for 3 years as a housing, commercial property and equity market analyst and a liquidity forecasting specialist.  He worked as a structural engineer in Queensland for 10 years prior to his career at the RBA. 

Aim of our business:

  • To partner with our clients in their aim to maximise returns. We provide timely, independent and thought-provoking research on thematic macro issues that are impacting or could impact financial markets. We aim to produce research that prompts our clients to question their assumptions.

Services:

  • A fortnightly research note.
  • Regular presentations and data support delivered by understanding our clients interests and investment process.
  • We also in work in confidence to investigate, analyse and report on issues at our clients direction. This work is done on a project-by-project basis.
  • As an Australian based business, the main focus is analysing how domestic and global issues impact Australian investors. However, our global and domestic insights are also valued by our offshore clients.

Our Edge:

  • Our low cost base relative to our competitors allows us to provide a quality product at a reasonable cost.
  • We are fully independent and don’t support a banking function or any third party. We have no interests other than providing our clients with the best possible research.
  • Our focus is not point forecasting, but providing rigorous analysis and insight. We don’t routinely focus on the top or bottom 10% of likely outcomes to create a headline.
  • Shane’s background in engineering has provided clients with unique insights into global infrastructure and domestic housing issues.

 

Analysts
Shane Lee

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