Aussie Equities Month in Review (October 2019)
- The ASX 200 fell by 0.4% and underperformed global markets after several strong months of outperformance and earnings downgrades. In net terms the market was upgraded, although this was mainly because there were less downgrades than normal and not because analysts were becoming more positive on the earnings outlook.
- IT (-3.9%), Financials (-2.8%), Consumer Staples (-2.2%) and Materials all underperformed.
- Australia remains expensive with the earnings bar now lowered to a level more achievable level of 5% (12-months forward) vs 10% in early August.
- Consistent with the PE expansion and weakening earnings growth backdrop, the volatility of EPS estimates within sectors is relatively large with Healthcare, Materials, Financials and IT having the largest dispersions relative to their own history.
- The RBA lowered the cash rate again, but signalled further easing would require the data to deteriorate a little further.
- SGM quantified its profit warning last month with management saying that EBIT would be $A20m to $A30m lower in FY20 due to declining scrap metal prices.
Bega Cheese is involved in receiving, processing, manufacturing and distributing dairy and associated products. Co. has two reporting segments that source, trade and utilise milk in the manufacture of the following products: Bega Cheese, which manufactures natural cheese, processed cheese, powders, butter and packaged cheese products, and Tatura Milk, which manufactures and packages cream cheese, butter, powders and nutritionals. Co. has facilities in Tatura, Derrimut, Coburg, Strathmerton, and Port Melbourne in Victoria and a cheese manufacturing facility in Bega, New South Wales.
Charter Hall Group is engaged in the investment in property funds, and property funds management. Co. has the following two reportable segments: Property Investments, which comprises investments in property funds; as well as Property Direct Investments, which comprises direct interests in investment properties; and Property Funds Management, which comprises funds management services, property management services and other property services.
Crown Resorts is an entertainment and gaming group. Co. owns and operates two resorts, Crown Melbourne, which features the Crown Towers Melbourne hotel, Crown Metropol Melbourne hotel, and the Crown Promenade Melbourne hotel; and Crown Perth, which features the Crown Metropol Perth hotel and the Crown Promenade Perth hotel. In the U.K., Co. owns and operates Crown Aspinall in London, a casino in the West End entertainment district. Co. also holds equity interest in Melco Crown Entertainment, a developer, owner and operator of resorts in Macau and the Philippines. The resorts include: City of Dreams Macau, Macau Studio City, and City of Dreams Manila.
JB Hi Fi is engaged in the retailing of home consumer products. Co. provides a range of brands with particular focus on consumer electronics, software including music, games and movies, whitegoods and appliances.
South32 is engaged in mining and metal production from a portfolio of assets for the commodities of alumina, aluminium, bauxite, energy and metallurgical coal, manganese ore, manganese alloy, nickel, silver, lead and zinc. As of June 30 2016, Co. operated 10 segments, which were comprised of: Worsley Alumina, South Africa Aluminium, Brazil Alumina, Mozal Aluminium, South Africa Energy Coal, Illawarra Metallurgical Coal, Australia Manganese, South Africa Manganese, Cerro Matoso, and Cannington.
Westpac Banking is a banking organization with branches, affiliates and controlled entities throughout Australia, New Zealand, Asia and in the Pacific region. Co. provides a range of banking and financial services in these markets, including consumer, business and institutional banking and wealth management services. Co. is engaged in the provision of financial services including lending, deposit taking, payments services, investment portfolio management and advice, superannuation and funds management, insurance services, leasing finance, general finance, interest rate risk management and foreign exchange services. As of Sep 30 2017, Co. had total assets of A$851,875,000,000.
WiseTech Global is engaged in providing software solutions to the logistics industry across more than 125 countries. Co. develops, sells and implements software solutions that enable logistics service providers to facilitate the movement and storage of goods and information domestically and internationally. Co.'s customers range from small and mid-sized regional or domestic enterprises to large multi-national companies.
Woolworths Group is organized into five segments: Australian Food and Petrol, which involves the procurement of food and petroleum products for resale to customers in Australia; New Zealand Supermarkets, which involves the procurement of food and liquor and products for resale to customers in New Zealand; Endeavour Drinks Group, which involves the procurement of liquor products for resale to customers in Australia; BIG W, which involves the procurement of discount general merchandise products for resale to customers in Australia; as well as Hotels, which involves the provision of leisure and hospitality services, accommodation, entertainment and gaming in Australia.
About us:
- The business is a Proprietary Limited Australian company that is owned and fully operated by Shane Lee from a small office in Sydney’s CBD.
- Shane worked for 17 years in Sydney-based senior research roles (economist, equity strategist and bond strategist) in global and regional investment banks and a domestic commercial bank prior to starting Macro Strategy Advisors. These roles straddled the asset classes making him uniquely positioned to advise multi-asset investors. He worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for 3 years as a housing, commercial property and equity market analyst and a liquidity forecasting specialist. He worked as a structural engineer in Queensland for 10 years prior to his career at the RBA.
Aim of our business:
- To partner with our clients in their aim to maximise returns. We provide timely, independent and thought-provoking research on thematic macro issues that are impacting or could impact financial markets. We aim to produce research that prompts our clients to question their assumptions.
Services:
- A fortnightly research note.
- Regular presentations and data support delivered by understanding our clients interests and investment process.
- We also in work in confidence to investigate, analyse and report on issues at our clients direction. This work is done on a project-by-project basis.
- As an Australian based business, the main focus is analysing how domestic and global issues impact Australian investors. However, our global and domestic insights are also valued by our offshore clients.
Our Edge:
- Our low cost base relative to our competitors allows us to provide a quality product at a reasonable cost.
- We are fully independent and don’t support a banking function or any third party. We have no interests other than providing our clients with the best possible research.
- Our focus is not point forecasting, but providing rigorous analysis and insight. We don’t routinely focus on the top or bottom 10% of likely outcomes to create a headline.
- Shane’s background in engineering has provided clients with unique insights into global infrastructure and domestic housing issues.
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