Model Portfolio update - October 2019 - Sticking to the Knitting
- Our model portfolio has added 200bp of Alpha since our last update and our stock selection remains broadly unchanged.
- We continue our strategy that we put in place early this year and again lift the bar on defensive positioning.
- The Banks are struggling on several fronts and we move underweight ANZ and CBA. We maintain our overweight in NAB and our underweight in WBC.
- The global economic cycle is long-in-the-tooth and recession seems inevitable, with prospects of a large global equity drawdown rising since our last portfolio update in June.
- Domestic cyclicals such as CWY, BIN, and CSR have underperformed in the past couple of months, but as the RBA presses on with policy support conditions should improve housing construction over time and benefit these stocks.
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group provides a range of banking and financial products and services to retail, small business, corporate and institutional clients. Co. operates on a divisional structure with six divisions: Australia, Institutional, New Zealand, Wealth Australia, Asia Retail & Pacific and Technology Services & Operations and Group Centre. Co.'s core products offered include deposits, credit cards, loans, investments and insurance, retail products provided to consumers, and banking and financial solutions provided to business customers through managers, among others. As of Sept 30 2015, Co. had total assets of A$914,869,000,000 and total deposits of A$566,847,000,000.
Bingo Industries is engaged in the provision of waste management solutions for domestic and commercial business, the operation of state of the art recycling centers and the manufacture of bins. Co. has two operating segments consisting of Collections and Post Collections. The Collections segment's primary business is the collection and transportation of building, demolition, industrial and commercial waste from customers to post-collection facilities. Post Collections consists of a network of ten resource recovery and recycling centers located in New South Wales. Co. diverts waste from landfill by sorting and processing mixed waste recieved from customers to be reused or recycled.
Cleanaway Waste Management is focused on the following segments: Solids, which comprises the collection, treatment, recycle and disposal of all types of solid waste streams, including general waste, recyclables, construction and demolition waste and medical and washroom services; as well as Liquids and Industrial Services, which comprises the collection, treatment, processing and recycling of liquid and hazardous waste, including industrial waste, grease trap waste, oily waters and used mineral and cooking oils in packaged and bulk forms for resale, disposal and to produce fuel oils and base oils, as well as services including industrial cleaning, vacuum tanker loading, site remediation.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides integrated financial services including retail, business and institutional banking, funds management, superannuation, life insurance, general insurance, broking services and finance company activities. Co. operates in seven segments, Retail banking Services, Business and Private Banking, Institutional Banking and Markets, Wealth Management, New Zealand, Bankwest, as well as International Financial Services and Other Divisions. As of June 30 2016, Co. had total assets of A$933.1 million and total deposits of A$588.0 million.
CSR is engaged in the manufacture and supply of building products in Australia and New Zealand. Co. operates in four segments, Building Products, Glass, Aluminium and Property. The Building Products segment consists of Lightweight Systems, Insulation, AFS walling systems, Bricks, and Roofing. The Glass segment includes the operations of Viridian, an architectural glass provider and manufacturer of float glass and hardcoated performance products. Products from the aluminium business include aluminium ingot, billet and slab.. The Property segment sells former operating sites.
National Australia Bank provides banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international banking, investment banking, wealth management, funds management, life insurance and custodian, trustee and nominee services. Co.'s division include: Australian Banking, which provides products and services to retail and business customers; National Australia Bank Limited Wealth, which provides superannuation, investment and insurance solutions; and New Zealand Banking, which comprises the Retail, Business, Agribusiness, Corporate and Institutional and Insurance franchises in New Zealand. As of Sept 30 2016, Co. had total assets of A$777.62 billion.
Westpac Banking is a banking organization with branches, affiliates and controlled entities throughout Australia, New Zealand, Asia and in the Pacific region. Co. provides a range of banking and financial services in these markets, including consumer, business and institutional banking and wealth management services. Co. is engaged in the provision of financial services including lending, deposit taking, payments services, investment portfolio management and advice, superannuation and funds management, insurance services, leasing finance, general finance, interest rate risk management and foreign exchange services. As of Sep 30 2017, Co. had total assets of A$851,875,000,000.
About us:
- The business is a Proprietary Limited Australian company that is owned and fully operated by Shane Lee from a small office in Sydney’s CBD.
- Shane worked for 17 years in Sydney-based senior research roles (economist, equity strategist and bond strategist) in global and regional investment banks and a domestic commercial bank prior to starting Macro Strategy Advisors. These roles straddled the asset classes making him uniquely positioned to advise multi-asset investors. He worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for 3 years as a housing, commercial property and equity market analyst and a liquidity forecasting specialist. He worked as a structural engineer in Queensland for 10 years prior to his career at the RBA.
Aim of our business:
- To partner with our clients in their aim to maximise returns. We provide timely, independent and thought-provoking research on thematic macro issues that are impacting or could impact financial markets. We aim to produce research that prompts our clients to question their assumptions.
Services:
- A fortnightly research note.
- Regular presentations and data support delivered by understanding our clients interests and investment process.
- We also in work in confidence to investigate, analyse and report on issues at our clients direction. This work is done on a project-by-project basis.
- As an Australian based business, the main focus is analysing how domestic and global issues impact Australian investors. However, our global and domestic insights are also valued by our offshore clients.
Our Edge:
- Our low cost base relative to our competitors allows us to provide a quality product at a reasonable cost.
- We are fully independent and don’t support a banking function or any third party. We have no interests other than providing our clients with the best possible research.
- Our focus is not point forecasting, but providing rigorous analysis and insight. We don’t routinely focus on the top or bottom 10% of likely outcomes to create a headline.
- Shane’s background in engineering has provided clients with unique insights into global infrastructure and domestic housing issues.
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