Tracking a Slowdown Path for Aussie Equities
- The Fed has massaged market expectations of lower official interest rates and with other central banks jumping onboard global financial conditions have improved in the past few months.
- Despite the Fed's poor form investors seem complacent about recession prospects, but the stakes are high.
- The Aussie stock market tends to underperform in both the slowdown and recession scenarios. A 16% return, on average, occurs during a US slowdown, while a recession scenario delivers a -12% decline on average.
- Despite this relatively poor performance vs the US at the index level, there are still opportunities in Australia.
Appen is engaged in the provision of speech and search technology services which provide more than 150 languages. Co. is also engaged in the provision of solutions for clients create engaging products with accurate speech interfaces and relevant content ranging from web sites, to maps, images, and merchandise.
BHP Billiton is a global resources company. Co. operates under a Dual Listed Company (DLC) structure, which consists of the BHP Billiton Limited Group and the BHP Billiton Plc Group, operating as a single economic entity. As of June 30 2017, Co. operated four reportable segments: Petroleum, which is involved in the exploration, development and production of oil and gas; Copper, which is involved in the mining of copper, silver, lead, zinc, molybdenum, uranium and gold; Iron ore, which is involved in the mining of iron ore; and Coal, which is involved in the mining of metallurgical coal and thermal (energy) coal.
Brambles is a supply-chain logistics company operating primarily through the CHEP and IFCO brands. Co. has three segments: Pallets segment, which primarily serves the consumer goods, fresh produce and beverage industries, and sub-divided into three regions: Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and Asia-Pacific; Reusable Plastic or Produce Crates segment, which serves the fresh produce and food industry and comprising the IFCO RPC pooling business worldwide and the CHEP RPC pooling businesses in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa; and Containers segment, which comprises four business units: Automotive, Intermediate Bulk Containers, Oil and Gas, and Aerospace.
Evolution Mining is engaged in operating, identifying and developing gold related mining projects in both Australia and New Zealand. As of June 30 2016, Co. had seven wholly-owned operating gold mines: Cowal in New South Wales, Cracow, Pajingo, Mt Carlton and Mt Rawdon in Queensland and Mungari and Edna May in Western Australia.
Independence Group is a mining, development and exploration company. Co. has brought into production the Nova Nickel, Copper & Cobalt Project, located in southern Western Australia effective Jul 1 2017. In addition, Co. produces gold, nickel, copper, zinc and silver from three other mining operations in Western Australia comprising the Tropicana Gold mine located east northeast of Kalgoorlie; the Jaguar zinc, copper and silver mine and processing operations north of Leonora; and the Long nickel mine in Kambalda. Furthermore, Co. is actively exploring in the prospective Albany Fraser Range as well as the prospective Lake Mackay region in the Northern Territory.
IPH is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co.'s principal activities consist of: intellectual property (IP) services related to provision of filing, prosecution, enforcement and management of patents, designs, trade marks and other IP in Australia, Asia and other countries; and the development and provision of IP data and analytics software under a subscription license model. These services are provided across Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Pacific Islands and Asia. Co.'s multidisciplinary team services a diverse client base of Fortune Global 500 companies and other multinationals, public sector research organizations, foreign associates and local clients.
Newcrest Mining is engaged in the exploration, mine development, mine operations and the sale of gold and gold/copper concentrate. As of June 30 2016, Co.'s reportable operating segments were: Cadia, Australia; Telfer, Australia; Lihir, Papua New Guinea (PNG); Gosowong, Indonesia; Hidden Valley Joint Venture (JV) (50% interest), PNG; Bonikro, COte d'Ivoire; and Exploration and Other, which mainly comprises projects in the exploration, evaluation and feasibility phase and includes Wafi-Golpu JV (50% interest) in PNG, Namosi JV (70.67% interest) in Fiji, O'Callaghans in Australia and Co.'s global greenfields exploration portfolio.
Rio Tinto is a mining group based in the United Kingdom and Australia. Co. is engaged in the business of finding, mining and processing mineral resources. Co.'s major products are iron ore, aluminium, copper, diamonds, coal, uranium, gold and industrial minerals (borax, titanium dioxide and salt). Co.'s activities span the world but are strongly represented in Australia and North America with significant businesses in South America, Asia, Europe and Africa. Co.'s operations comprise four principal product groups - Iron Ore, Aluminium, Copper and Diamonds, and Energy & Minerals.
About us:
- The business is a Proprietary Limited Australian company that is owned and fully operated by Shane Lee from a small office in Sydney’s CBD.
- Shane worked for 17 years in Sydney-based senior research roles (economist, equity strategist and bond strategist) in global and regional investment banks and a domestic commercial bank prior to starting Macro Strategy Advisors. These roles straddled the asset classes making him uniquely positioned to advise multi-asset investors. He worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for 3 years as a housing, commercial property and equity market analyst and a liquidity forecasting specialist. He worked as a structural engineer in Queensland for 10 years prior to his career at the RBA.
Aim of our business:
- To partner with our clients in their aim to maximise returns. We provide timely, independent and thought-provoking research on thematic macro issues that are impacting or could impact financial markets. We aim to produce research that prompts our clients to question their assumptions.
Services:
- A fortnightly research note.
- Regular presentations and data support delivered by understanding our clients interests and investment process.
- We also in work in confidence to investigate, analyse and report on issues at our clients direction. This work is done on a project-by-project basis.
- As an Australian based business, the main focus is analysing how domestic and global issues impact Australian investors. However, our global and domestic insights are also valued by our offshore clients.
Our Edge:
- Our low cost base relative to our competitors allows us to provide a quality product at a reasonable cost.
- We are fully independent and don’t support a banking function or any third party. We have no interests other than providing our clients with the best possible research.
- Our focus is not point forecasting, but providing rigorous analysis and insight. We don’t routinely focus on the top or bottom 10% of likely outcomes to create a headline.
- Shane’s background in engineering has provided clients with unique insights into global infrastructure and domestic housing issues.
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