Crunch Time for Aussie Housing
- Australia is in uncharted territory.
- The economy shrugged off the decline in Sydney and Melbourne house prices last year due mainly to a backdrop of strong employment growth.
- We estimate that the macro-prudential measures taken by the regulator (The Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority) combined with the reaction of the Banks to the Banking Royal Commission hearings have been equivalent to an additional 150bp increase in the average mortgage rate on top of the 15bp delivered by the Banks to recover the increase in short-term funding costs.
- Stay underweight Banks and Residential Property for now.
- MGR and SGP are most exposed in Property, while CBA and WBC are the most exposed Banks to stress in the home loan market.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides integrated financial services including retail, business and institutional banking, funds management, superannuation, life insurance, general insurance, broking services and finance company activities. Co. operates in seven segments, Retail banking Services, Business and Private Banking, Institutional Banking and Markets, Wealth Management, New Zealand, Bankwest, as well as International Financial Services and Other Divisions. As of June 30 2016, Co. had total assets of A$933.1 million and total deposits of A$588.0 million.
Mirvac Group is engaged in real estate investment, development, third party capital management and property asset management. Co. performs these activities across three primary segments: Office & Industrial, which manages the office and industrial property portfolio to produce rental income along with developing office and industrial projects; Retail, which manages the retail property portfolio, including shopping centers, to produce rental income; and Residential, which designs, develops, markets and sells residential properties to external customers including masterplanned communities and apartments in primary metropolitan markets in conjunction with strategic partners.
Stockland is engaged in owning, managing and developing shopping centres, logistics centres and business parks, office assets, residential communities, and retirement living villages. As of June 30 2016, Co.'s Commercial Property portfolio included 42 retail centres, 27 properties of logistics and business parks portfolio, and nine assets of office portfolio; and it had approximately 76,800 lots in its residentialportfolio. Also, Co. is a retirement living operator in Australia, with over 9,600 established units across five states and the Australian Capital Territory, which includes a development pipeline of over 3,100 units.
Westpac Banking is a banking organization with branches, affiliates and controlled entities throughout Australia, New Zealand, Asia and in the Pacific region. Co. provides a range of banking and financial services in these markets, including consumer, business and institutional banking and wealth management services. Co. is engaged in the provision of financial services including lending, deposit taking, payments services, investment portfolio management and advice, superannuation and funds management, insurance services, leasing finance, general finance, interest rate risk management and foreign exchange services. As of Sep 30 2017, Co. had total assets of A$851,875,000,000.
About us:
- The business is a Proprietary Limited Australian company that is owned and fully operated by Shane Lee from a small office in Sydney’s CBD.
- Shane worked for 17 years in Sydney-based senior research roles (economist, equity strategist and bond strategist) in global and regional investment banks and a domestic commercial bank prior to starting Macro Strategy Advisors. These roles straddled the asset classes making him uniquely positioned to advise multi-asset investors. He worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for 3 years as a housing, commercial property and equity market analyst and a liquidity forecasting specialist. He worked as a structural engineer in Queensland for 10 years prior to his career at the RBA.
Aim of our business:
- To partner with our clients in their aim to maximise returns. We provide timely, independent and thought-provoking research on thematic macro issues that are impacting or could impact financial markets. We aim to produce research that prompts our clients to question their assumptions.
Services:
- A fortnightly research note.
- Regular presentations and data support delivered by understanding our clients interests and investment process.
- We also in work in confidence to investigate, analyse and report on issues at our clients direction. This work is done on a project-by-project basis.
- As an Australian based business, the main focus is analysing how domestic and global issues impact Australian investors. However, our global and domestic insights are also valued by our offshore clients.
Our Edge:
- Our low cost base relative to our competitors allows us to provide a quality product at a reasonable cost.
- We are fully independent and don’t support a banking function or any third party. We have no interests other than providing our clients with the best possible research.
- Our focus is not point forecasting, but providing rigorous analysis and insight. We don’t routinely focus on the top or bottom 10% of likely outcomes to create a headline.
- Shane’s background in engineering has provided clients with unique insights into global infrastructure and domestic housing issues.
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