Report
EUR 120.45 For Business Accounts Only

Aussie Equities 2019: On a Wing and a Prayer

  • We expect 2019 will be challenging.
  • The risks for the domestic economy seem skewed to the downside.
  • An Election Year with a change of Government Likely.
  • Accumulate, but Don’t Over-pay for Defendable Earnings.
  • Private equity bids for NVT and TME have forced us to remove these stocks from the portfolio and we take profit in these names.
  • We think bond yields are past their peak for now and have been gradually building positions in property.
Underlyings
Coca-Cola Amatil Limited

Coca-Cola Amatil manufactures, distributes and sells ready-to-drink beverages. Co.'s product range includes non-alcohol sparkling, beverages, spring water, sports and energy drinks, fruit juices, iced tea, flavoured milk, coffee, tea, beer, cider, spirits and packaged ready-to-eat fruit and vegetable snacks and products. Co.'s segments include: Non-Alcohol Beverages, which manufactures, distributes and markets sparkling drinks and other non-alcohol beverages; Alcohol & Coffee Beverages, which manufactures and distributes premium spirits, beer and coffee products; and Corporate, Food & Services, which is involved in the processing and marketing of fruit and other food products business.

Cochlear Limited

Cochlear is a for-profit entity and operates in the implantable hearing device industry. Co.'s implant systems comprise an implant which is inserted during surgery and an external sound processor. As of June 30 2016, Co. sold in over 100 countries and had a direct presence in approximately 20 countries and used distributors and agents in other areas. Manufacturing for the cochlear implant product range is based in Australia. The bone conduction implant product range is manufactured in Sweden. Co.'s supply chain operates with product being distributed from its manufacturing sites in Australia and Sweden to its regional distribution centres in the U.S., the U.K. and Panama.

Goodman Group

Goodman Group is engaged in owning, developing and managing industrial property and business space in primary markets around the world. The principal activities of Co. are investment in directly and indirectly held industrial property, property services, property development (including development management) and investment management. The principal markets in which Co. operates in are Australia and New Zealand, Asia, Continental Europe, the U.K. and the Americas.

Lendlease Group

LendLease operates a regional management structure in Australia, Asia, Europe and the Americas. Co.'s segments include: Development, which is involved in the development of communities, inner-city mixed-use developments, apartments, retirement, retail, commercial assets and social and economic infrastructure; Construction, which provides project management, design, and construction services, predominantly in the infrastructure, defence, mixed-use, commercial, and residential sectors; and Investments, which includes a wholesale investment management platform and also includes Co.'s ownership interests in property and infrastructure Co-Investments, Retirement Living and U.S. Military Housing.

Navitas Limited

Navitas provides educational services to domestic and overseas students. Co.'s segments are: University Partnerships, which delivers education programs, via pathway colleges and managed campuses, to students requiring a university education; SAE Institute, which delivers education programs in creative media including courses in audio, film and multimedia; and Professional and English Programs, which delivers English language tuition, jobs skills training and higher and vocational education in health, security and psychology, and is comprised of four business units: English and Foundation Skills, Careers and Learning Skills, Navitas Professional Institute, and Training and Development.

Resmed CDI

Seek Limited

Seek is engaged in the online matching of hirers and candidates with career opportunities and related services; investing in early stage businesses and technologies which are in or adjacent to the main online employment marketplace; and distribution and provision of vocational training and higher education courses. Co.'s ANZ Employment, Zhaopin, SEEK Asia, Brasil Online and OCC segments provides online employment and marketplace services. Co.'s Education segment includes the marketing, sale and distribution of education courses. Co. also has an Early Stage Ventures segment consisting of a portfolio of Australian and international investments.

Technology One

Technology One is engaged in the development, marketing, sales, implementation and support of enterprise business software solutions. Co.'s segments are: Sales and Marketing, which is involved in the sales of license fees and customer support; Consulting, which is involved in the implementation, consulting services and custom software development services for large scale, purpose built applications; Research & Development, which is involved in research development and support; Cloud, which is involved in the delivery of cloud hosting services; and Corporate, which is involved in the aggregation of the corporate services functions' costs and revenue, and corporately-funded projects.

Trade Me Group Limited

Trade Me Group is a online marketplace and classified advertising platform that is engaged in the auctions and fixed price sales for new and used goods, as well as automotive, real estate and employment businesses. Co. is also engaged in the web businesses for accommodation, dating and group buying.

Treasury Wine Estates Limited

Treasury Wine Estates is engaged in viticulture and winemaking, and the marketing, sale and distribution of wine. Co.'s wine portfolio includes wine brands such as Penfolds, Beringer, Lindeman's, Wolf Blass, Stags' Leap, Chateau St Jean, Beaulieu Vineyard and Sterling Vineyards. Co. also distributes beer and cider under license in New Zealand and provides contract bottling services to third parties. Co. maintains its operations in four regions: Australia and New Zealand, Asia, Europe, and Americas.

Woolworths Group Ltd

Woolworths Group is organized into five segments: Australian Food and Petrol, which involves the procurement of food and petroleum products for resale to customers in Australia; New Zealand Supermarkets, which involves the procurement of food and liquor and products for resale to customers in New Zealand; Endeavour Drinks Group, which involves the procurement of liquor products for resale to customers in Australia; BIG W, which involves the procurement of discount general merchandise products for resale to customers in Australia; as well as Hotels, which involves the provision of leisure and hospitality services, accommodation, entertainment and gaming in Australia.

Provider
Macro Strategy Advisors Pty Ltd
Macro Strategy Advisors Pty Ltd

About  us:

  • The business is a Proprietary Limited Australian company that is owned and fully operated by Shane Lee from a small office in Sydney’s CBD.
  • Shane worked for 17 years in Sydney-based senior research roles (economist, equity strategist and bond strategist) in global and regional investment banks and a domestic commercial bank prior to starting Macro Strategy Advisors. These roles straddled the asset classes making him uniquely positioned to advise multi-asset investors. He worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for 3 years as a housing, commercial property and equity market analyst and a liquidity forecasting specialist.  He worked as a structural engineer in Queensland for 10 years prior to his career at the RBA. 

Aim of our business:

  • To partner with our clients in their aim to maximise returns. We provide timely, independent and thought-provoking research on thematic macro issues that are impacting or could impact financial markets. We aim to produce research that prompts our clients to question their assumptions.

Services:

  • A fortnightly research note.
  • Regular presentations and data support delivered by understanding our clients interests and investment process.
  • We also in work in confidence to investigate, analyse and report on issues at our clients direction. This work is done on a project-by-project basis.
  • As an Australian based business, the main focus is analysing how domestic and global issues impact Australian investors. However, our global and domestic insights are also valued by our offshore clients.

Our Edge:

  • Our low cost base relative to our competitors allows us to provide a quality product at a reasonable cost.
  • We are fully independent and don’t support a banking function or any third party. We have no interests other than providing our clients with the best possible research.
  • Our focus is not point forecasting, but providing rigorous analysis and insight. We don’t routinely focus on the top or bottom 10% of likely outcomes to create a headline.
  • Shane’s background in engineering has provided clients with unique insights into global infrastructure and domestic housing issues.

 

Analysts
Shane Lee

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