Going into Survial Mode: The Rush to Innovate
Stay Underweight Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples. In our 2018 Australian equity market outlook, we argued that the country is in grip of a technology-driven disruption cycle that is depressing pricing power and compressing margins. In this note, we quantify and put into context the size and scope of the boom. The consumer remains constrained and the disruption to “Bricks and Mortar” retail has been particularly savage. It’s far too early to go back into this space, despite a few stocks reporting better-than-expected foot-traffic over the holiday period.
Retail Structural Headwinds Are Unrelenting. JBH and PMV are innovating and surviving the battle. In contrast, FLT, DMP, and GXL are seeing a falling RoA and rising wages bill.
Manufacturing is Being Crunched by Innovation.
Wages Growth Should Remain Tame and Keep Inflation in Check.
Domino's Pizza is engaged in the operation of retail food outlets and the operation of franchise services. Co. operates in Australia, New Zealand, France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany and Japan. Co.'s reportable segments are focused on the geographical location in which it operates in: Australia/New Zealand, Europe, and Japan. As of Jul 3 2016, Co.'s total network store count was 714 in Australia and New Zealand, 816 in Europe and 453 in Japan.
Flight Centre Travel Group is engaged in the travel retailing in both the leisure and corporate travel sectors, plus wholesaling.
Greencross is a pet care company providing veterinary services. Co. provides a network of retail stores, veterinary clinics, grooming salons and dog-wash facilities across Australia and New Zealand. As of June 30 2016, Co. had over 220 stores operating under the brands Petbarn and City Farmers and over 150 clinics including general practices, specialty and emergency centres. Co. also provides a range of additional pet care services such as crematoria, pet adoption, puppy behavioral training, pet insurance and pet hotels. In addition to selling pet food and accessories via its store and clinic network, Co. also has an online business serving the Australian and New Zealand pet care market.
JB Hi Fi is engaged in the retailing of home consumer products. Co. provides a range of brands with particular focus on consumer electronics, software including music, games and movies, whitegoods and appliances.
Premier Investments is engaged in operation of several retail fashion chains within the specialty retail fashion markets in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, the U.K., as well as Malaysia and Hong Kong. Co. also has investments in listed securities and money market deposits. Co.'s operating segments include the retail segment, which represents several specialty retail fashion chains; and the investments segment, which represents investments in securities for both long-term and short-term gains and dividend income and interest.
Super Retail Group's main activities are result in the following business segments: Auto, which include retailing of auto parts and accessories, tools and equipment; Leisure, which include retailing of boating, camping, outdoor equipment, fishing equipment and apparel; and Sports, which include retailing of sporting equipment, bicycles, bicycles accessories and apparel. Co.'s principal brands include Amart Sports for sports products such as equipment, apparel and associated accessories; BCF for an outdoor retailer; Rays for an outdoor entertainment and camping leisure retailer; Rebel for sporting and goods such as fitness equipment; and Supercheap Auto for automotive parts and accessories.
About us:
- The business is a Proprietary Limited Australian company that is owned and fully operated by Shane Lee from a small office in Sydney’s CBD.
- Shane worked for 17 years in Sydney-based senior research roles (economist, equity strategist and bond strategist) in global and regional investment banks and a domestic commercial bank prior to starting Macro Strategy Advisors. These roles straddled the asset classes making him uniquely positioned to advise multi-asset investors. He worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for 3 years as a housing, commercial property and equity market analyst and a liquidity forecasting specialist. He worked as a structural engineer in Queensland for 10 years prior to his career at the RBA.
Aim of our business:
- To partner with our clients in their aim to maximise returns. We provide timely, independent and thought-provoking research on thematic macro issues that are impacting or could impact financial markets. We aim to produce research that prompts our clients to question their assumptions.
Services:
- A fortnightly research note.
- Regular presentations and data support delivered by understanding our clients interests and investment process.
- We also in work in confidence to investigate, analyse and report on issues at our clients direction. This work is done on a project-by-project basis.
- As an Australian based business, the main focus is analysing how domestic and global issues impact Australian investors. However, our global and domestic insights are also valued by our offshore clients.
Our Edge:
- Our low cost base relative to our competitors allows us to provide a quality product at a reasonable cost.
- We are fully independent and don’t support a banking function or any third party. We have no interests other than providing our clients with the best possible research.
- Our focus is not point forecasting, but providing rigorous analysis and insight. We don’t routinely focus on the top or bottom 10% of likely outcomes to create a headline.
- Shane’s background in engineering has provided clients with unique insights into global infrastructure and domestic housing issues.
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