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Skeletons in the Closet: Take Two
- In August, we flagged that a political crisis was developing in Australia that could bring an end to the Turnbull Federal Government. We now know that Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce has been found to be in breach of Section 44 of the Constitution, while another Coalition lower house member, John Alexander, has been forced to quit parliament because he holds UK citizenship. The constitution doesn’t allow dual citizens to sit in parliament.
- The citizenship issue has forced six Senators to step down, either voluntarily after learning they were dual citizens, or, following the High Court decision in October. Very few Labor MP’s have been implicated in the crisis, although in recent weeks the citizenship status of Justine Keay and Susan Lamb’s has been questioned. The Government has reacted slowly to the issue, but now it plans to recall parliament once more before Christmas leaving MP’s 3 weeks before publicly revealing their family history and citizenship status with supporting documents.
- At best, the citizenship issue has become a major distraction for a Government that is languishing in the polls. However, the issue has clearly become critical now and has the potential to cause the collapse of the Government. Indeed, apart from those already implicated, there are twenty-one MPs born in a foreign country.
- Clients continue to ask whether a collapse of government due to the dual citizenship issue would put pressure on the Aussie dollar. The Aussie dollar has fallen out of favour in recent weeks mainly due to a run of weak domestic data and not to a resurgent US dollar. If the fundamentals continue to weigh on the Aussie dollar then the collapse of the Government mid-term could add further to these pressures. The issue is unlikely to cause solely cause currency weakness, given markets have shown resilience to several leadership changes and changes of Government in the past 10 years.
Provider
Macro Strategy Advisors Pty Ltd
About us:
- The business is a Proprietary Limited Australian company that is owned and fully operated by Shane Lee from a small office in Sydney’s CBD.
- Shane worked for 17 years in Sydney-based senior research roles (economist, equity strategist and bond strategist) in global and regional investment banks and a domestic commercial bank prior to starting Macro Strategy Advisors. These roles straddled the asset classes making him uniquely positioned to advise multi-asset investors. He worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for 3 years as a housing, commercial property and equity market analyst and a liquidity forecasting specialist. He worked as a structural engineer in Queensland for 10 years prior to his career at the RBA.
Aim of our business:
- To partner with our clients in their aim to maximise returns. We provide timely, independent and thought-provoking research on thematic macro issues that are impacting or could impact financial markets. We aim to produce research that prompts our clients to question their assumptions.
Services:
- A fortnightly research note.
- Regular presentations and data support delivered by understanding our clients interests and investment process.
- We also in work in confidence to investigate, analyse and report on issues at our clients direction. This work is done on a project-by-project basis.
- As an Australian based business, the main focus is analysing how domestic and global issues impact Australian investors. However, our global and domestic insights are also valued by our offshore clients.
Our Edge:
- Our low cost base relative to our competitors allows us to provide a quality product at a reasonable cost.
- We are fully independent and don’t support a banking function or any third party. We have no interests other than providing our clients with the best possible research.
- Our focus is not point forecasting, but providing rigorous analysis and insight. We don’t routinely focus on the top or bottom 10% of likely outcomes to create a headline.
- Shane’s background in engineering has provided clients with unique insights into global infrastructure and domestic housing issues.
Shane Lee
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