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Morningstar | Fine-Tuning Short- and Long-Term Assumptions on Air China, FVE Maintained at HKD 7.00. See Updated Analyst Note from 28 Apr 2019

No-moat Air China reported solid first-quarter results and guided for the remainder of 2019. The carrier’s first-quarter earnings featured higher operating margin, up 120 basis points year over year, driven primarily by strong cost management efforts. We have revisited our assumptions after incorporating management’s more optimistic near-term guidance and the probability-weighted impact from the ongoing conflict between China and the U.S. Despite changes to our forecasts, we are maintaining our fair value estimate for Air China at HKD 7.00 (CNY 6.10), while shares of the group remain overvalued.

During the first three months of 2019, Air China recorded flat yield for its domestic business. Improvement in yield was seen on its international routes, while a decline in yield was booked for regional (Hong Kong and Macau) routes. We have taken into account management’s guidance, and now expect revenue per available seat-kilometer, or RASK, to post a 0.5% increase for 2019. Despite a slower pace of new capacity deployment and the continued grounding of Boeing 737 MAX 8 during the first quarter, Air China has not changed its capacity guidance for the full year, keeping 10% capacity growth for domestic routes and 9% for international. While the carrier’s near-term capacity growth will be matched by strong demand for air travel, we do not see any more upside in yield over the next five years. Adverse effects from the upcoming opening of Beijing’s second airport are set to hit Air China’s profitability in our view.

We also fine-tuned our long-term assumptions for Chinese airlines after incorporating the probability-weighted impact from the ongoing conflict between China and the U.S. Given that airlines are exposed to consumption and carry higher income elasticity of demand, we now see slightly slower passenger growth for  Air China.

On a high level, we see an average 60-basis-point reduction in real consumption over the next 10 years. Slower consumption growth will negatively affect demand for goods and services, especially those that are more sensitive to changes in incomes. According to studies by the International Air Transport Association, developing countries like China have estimated price elasticity of air passenger demand around 1.8. Multiplying 0.6% by 1.8, we see a 1.1% annual reduction in underlying passenger demand growth or a total of 11% over the next 10 years.

A slowdown in demand for air travel will not be felt uniformly across the big three Chinese carriers. Lesser business activity, coupled with consumption downgrades, will weigh proportionally more on demand for business and first-class travel. Among our Chinese airline coverage, Air China generates the highest percentage of sales from premium-class demand, suggesting its business will be more affected by the U.S.-China conflict. We believe the resulting losses in passenger traffic will be permanent unless the two countries reach a face-saving settlement where economic activities return to the status quo.

The adverse impact on consumption, however, should be partially offset by the expected reduction in ticket prices resulted from the State Council’s recently announced plans to halve infrastructure levy charges. Assuming the levy cut will be applied equally across all routes, the per-passenger fee will be lowered to CNY 25 from CNY 50 for domestic and to CNY 45 from CNY 90 for international flights. Resulted reductions will amount to roughly 3% of average domestic and international ticket prices. We think the cuts in infrastructure levy will make air travel more affordable, boosting demand and somewhat offsetting the negative impact on China airlines from the U.S.-China conflict.