Thesis and Valuation Intact as Danone Lowers Fiscal 2016 Growth Guidance but Raises Margin Guidance
Danone updated its full-year forecast Dec. 19, revealing that it is likely to miss its previous top-line guidance as a result of weakness in the dairy segment in Europe but exceed its guidance for the group-level operating margin by 10 basis points. We have trimmed our 2016 dairy segment organic growth assumption by 30 basis points to 1.7%, but the change is neutral to our 2016 earnings forecast and fair value estimates of EUR 71 for the ordinary shares and $16 for the ADRs. Our narrow moat rati...Danone is engaged in activities in the global food and beverages industry. Co. operates in four markets: Fresh Dairy Products (Co. produces and sells yogurts, fermented dairy products and other fresh dairy products); Waters (Co. produces and sells natural waters as well as flavored and vitamin-enriched waters products); Early Life Nutrition (Co. produces baby formula, milk-and fruit-based desserts, cereals, small pots of baby food and ready-made baby food); and Medical Nutrition (Co. develops adult and pediatric clinical nutrition products to be taken orally, or through a catheter in the event of malnutrition related to illness or other causes).
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