The shift toward the refining and smelting business will come back to haunt Jiangxi Copper.
No-moat Jiangxi Copper's, or JC's, first-quarter net profit of CNY 541 million, up 169% year over year, was broadly in line with our expectation. Stripping out the CNY 351 million provision for bad debts, JC's earnings came in higher than our forecast, but we are keeping our earnings estimates unchanged as we expect copper prices to weaken going forward. As a result, we retain our fair value estimate of HKD 8.20 per share (CNY 7.30). We think JC is overvalued due to our below-consensus copper pr...
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