Revising Ctrip’s FVE to USD 47 Per Share; Refocusing on Services Helps Maintain Its Narrow Moat
We have reduced narrow-moat Ctrip’s fair value estimate to USD 47 per share from USD 57 per share, and 40% of the reduction was due to weakening CNY, with the rest reflecting the weak guidance of 0% to 1% non-GAAP operating margin in the fourth quarter, near-term weakness in travel demand due to slowing economy, increasing competition from Meituan and Fliggy, and investment in increasing customer service standard. Our 10-year net revenue CAGR estimate has been revised to 12% versus 13% previousl...
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