EUR 850.00 For Business Accounts Only

Morningstar | Moncler's 1Q Sales Growth Strong as Expected. FVE Maintained

We are maintaining our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Moncler as the company delivered first-quarter sales in line with our annual expectations. Although, Moncler’s outperformance versus peers continues, we believe it to be well reflected in the price and see shares as expensive.

Revenue increased by 14% in the quarter at actual currencies (11% at constant exchange rates), versus our 14.9% annual growth forecast. Growth remains solid and comes on top of a challenging comparison base (28% growth at constant exchange rates in the first quarter 2018). Traffic and conversion developed positively in the quarter; however, an average selling price was a bit down, due to stronger performance of lower priced items, versus heavy down jackets in the first quarter last year helped by unseasonably cold weather a year ago. Own retail channels grew by 10% at constant exchange rates (with approximately equal contribution of space and comparable sales) and wholesale business increased by 13%, with early shipments of the spring collection. Genius project remains important to build stronger brand perception and expected to contribute 9%-10% to revenue this year (approximately in line with the last year and with less seasonality compared with the core business).

Moncler delivered good growth across regions, with EMEA excluding Italy and Asia, and Rest of the World growing the fastest at 12% constant currencies. Sales in Italy increased by 6% and in Americas by 9%. Chinese customer demand, both domestically and internationally, remained strong.