Macro and Competitive Headwinds Abound for No-Moat Post; Shares Look Rich
We’re modestly lowering our fair value estimate for no-moat Post to $92 from $93, driven by lower cereal revenue, partially offset by higher margins. Our consolidated revenue growth assumption falls to 2% from 3% as efforts to stabilize the cereal category have fallen short. We are therefore reducing our cereal expectations from modest growth to 0.5% declines in the U.S. and 2% declines internationally, in line with category trends. Given the firm’s lack of a competitive advantage, we think it i...Post Holdings is a consumer packaged goods holding company. The company's segments are: Post Consumer Brands, which manufactures, markets and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products; Weetabix, which markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal products; Foodservice, which produces and distributes egg and potato products; Refrigerated Retail, which produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg, cheese, sausage and other refrigerated products; and BellRing Brands, which markets and distributes ready-to-drink protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars and supplements in the nutrition category.
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