China Oil & Gas: Above-Consensus Forecasts for Medium-Term Growth, but Electric Vehicles Loom Large
Consensus is missing the boat on China’s medium- and long-term oil demand but, interestingly, in different directions. Over the next five years, we’re bullish. We think that by relying on China’s inflated official GDP growth figures, other forecasters are underestimating China’s income elasticity of oil demand. Looking from the bottom up, near-term improvements in China's fuel-efficiency standards will be more modest than headline requirements suggest. Also, others have mistakenly identified the...
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