EVs, AVs, and Ride-Hailing: the Impact on Long-Term U.S. Gasoline Demand and Vehicle Ownership
Amara's law states that we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. We'd posit that is the case today with ride-hailing, electric vehicles, and autonomous vehicles, and their impact on private vehicle ownership and fuel consumption. Our analysis suggests these technologies will be beneficial for mobility, but the net impact on U.S. gasoline demand will be negative. Specifically, we think the introduction of AVs will materially...
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