AB InBev: Good cheer(s). Adecco: 1Q23 sees 10% beat and gaining share; start of 2Q23 resilient as seen at peers. AMG: Lithium drives solid 1Q23 EBITDA beat, 2023F guidance reaffirmed. Arcadis: Good start to 2023. ArcelorMittal: Solid EBITDA beat, new share buyback. BAM: Solid start to the year. DSM-Firmenich: Matchless. Groupe Bruxelles Lambert : 1Q23 results show 5% increase in NAV. Kinepolis: Peer Cineplex box office revenue for April at 96% of 2019 level. Marel: Another rela...
AB InBev: Calling Dr Beat Arcadis: No big surprises ArcelorMittal: In line 2Q22, new US$1.4bn share buyback and US$2bn acquisition Cofinimmo: New investments in Italy and the Netherlands Marel: Lowers 2023 margin target Orange Belgium: EU commission could ask for phase 2 investigation on VOO deal Shell plc: Pampering its shareholders further Solvay: Strong pre-release confirmed with significant FY22 EBITDA guidance upgrade to +14-18% Telenet: Weak 2Q, but guidance confirmed, welcome disclosure o...
We raise our recommendation from Hold to BUY. Most important, we see market circumstances remaining favourable with higher commodity prices to continue. Shell is able to fully benefit from these prices. We foresee Shell to generate a Cash Flow From Operations (CFFO) of over US$50bn in FY22-24F annually. Consequently, over the total period FY22-24F we estimate Shell to return US$51bn to its shareholders in the form of dividends (US$22bn) and share buybacks (US$29bn) while net debt by end-FY24F wo...
AB InBev: The BEES knees. Adecco: 1Q22 disappoints - 13% miss on adj. EBITA, revenue growth, CEO change. Air France-KLM: Narrowing the gap with FY19. AMG: 2022F and LT guidance raised, +17% upside to 2023F EBITDA consensus. ArcelorMittal: Solid 1Q22 beat, buyback hiked to US$2bn. BAM: Solid start to the year. ForFarmers: Heads you win, tails I lose. IBA: First PT system sold under CGNNT partnership. Shell plc: Ahead of expectations. Umicore: Thoughts on recent newsflow
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
With its management day on Tuesday, narrow-moat Shell extended its outlook through 2025 from the existing plan that runs through 2020. The latest plan calls for organic free cash flow of $35 billion in 2025 from a range of $28 billion-$33 billion in 2020, with returns on capital rising to 12% from 10%, and gearing falling to 15%-25% from 25%. Cash capital expenditures should tick up to $30 million on average (including about $1 billion in acquisition spending) from $24 billion->$29 billion expec...
With its management day on Tuesday, narrow-moat Shell extended its outlook through 2025 from the existing plan that runs through 2020. The latest plan calls for organic free cash flow of $35 billion in 2025 from a range of $28 billion-$33 billion in 2020, with returns on capital rising to 12% from 10%, and gearing falling to 15%-25% from 25%. Cash capital expenditures should tick up to $30 million on average (including about $1 billion in acquisition spending) from $24 billion->$29 billion ex...
With the restoration of its cash dividend, Shell has demonstrated that it has taken the necessary steps to remain competitive in a world of $60/barrel oil. Like the rest of the integrated group, Shell has reduced its cost base, which had become bloated, in part by reducing headcount and improving its supply chain. Furthermore, the addition of BG’s low-cost production reduces Shell’s per-barrel operating cost, which ranked among the highest in its peer group. Shell already reduced operating c...
Best Idea Royal Dutch Shell posted an impressive first quarter with earnings growth across all operating segments and continued strong cash flow generation. The quarter stands out from other integrateds’ relatively weak reports and demonstrates the value of Shell’s integrated model while supporting our thesis of continued earnings and free cash flow growth during the next several years. As such, our fair value estimate and moat rating are unchanged. We continue to think this improvement is u...
Best Idea Royal Dutch Shell posted an impressive first quarter with earnings growth across all of operating segments and continued strong cash flow generation. The quarter stands out from other integrateds’ relatively weak reports and demonstrates the value of Shell’s integrated model while supporting our thesis of continued earnings and free cash flow growth during the next several years. As such, our fair value estimate and moat rating are unchanged. We continued to think this improvement ...
Best Idea Royal Dutch Shell posted an impressive first quarter with earnings growth across all of operating segments and continued strong cash flow generation. The quarter stands out from other integrateds’ relatively weak reports and demonstrates the value of Shell’s integrated model while supporting our thesis of continued earnings and free cash flow growth during the next several years. As such, our fair value estimate and moat rating are unchanged. We continued to think this improvement ...
Shell closed out 2018 by reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, including strong earnings and cash flow growth. Most notable was the cash flow, which increased to $22.0 billion from $7.3 billion a year ago. Shell’s cash flow generation has been plagued all year by increases in working capital and margin requirements for hedging contracts for the integrated gas portfolio, but both turned to a tailwind during the fourth quarter, to the tune of $9.1 billion and $1.9 billion, respe...
Shell closed out 2018 by reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, including strong earnings and cash flow growth. Most notable was the cash flow, which increased to $22.0 billion from $7.3 billion a year ago. Shell’s cash flow generation has been plagued all year by increases in working capital and margin requirements for hedging contracts for the integrated gas portfolio, but both turned to a tailwind during the fourth quarter, to the tune of $9.1 billion and $1.9 billion, respe...
Amara's law states that we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. We'd posit that is the case today with ride-hailing, electric vehicles, and autonomous vehicles, and their impact on private vehicle ownership and fuel consumption. Our analysis suggests these technologies will be beneficial for mobility, but the net impact on U.S. gasoline demand will be negative. Specifically, we think the introduction of AVs will materially...
Amara's law states that we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. We'd posit that is the case today with ride-hailing, electric vehicles, and autonomous vehicles, and their impact on private vehicle ownership and fuel consumption. Our analysis suggests these technologies will be beneficial for mobility, but the net impact on U.S. gasoline demand will be negative. Specifically, we think the introduction of AVs will materially...
Amara's law states that we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. We'd posit that is the case today with ride-hailing, electric vehicles, and autonomous vehicles, and their impact on private vehicle ownership and fuel consumption. Our analysis suggests these technologies will be beneficial for mobility, but the net impact on U.S. gasoline demand will be negative. Specifically, we think the introduction of AVs will materially...
Consensus is missing the boat on China’s medium- and long-term oil demand but, interestingly, in different directions. Over the next five years, we’re bullish. We think that by relying on China’s inflated official GDP growth figures, other forecasters are underestimating China’s income elasticity of oil demand. Looking from the bottom up, near-term improvements in China's fuel-efficiency standards will be more modest than headline requirements suggest. Also, others have mistakenly identi...
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