Morningstar | Sensient Shares Plummet on Weak 3Q Results; Headwinds Will Be Fleeting but Our FVE Falls to $74
Sensient Technologies issued soft third-quarter results, sending shares sharply lower. Management highlighted lower volumes stemming from execution disruptions related to restructuring efforts as well as elevated onion costs as the key headwinds facing the flavors and fragrances segment. Additionally, for the color group, destocking and softness in the cosmetic colors business provided an additional challenge. Although adjusted earnings per share still increased from the prior-year period, we've tempered our fourth-quarter outlook. Management now expects a mid-single-digit year-on-year decline in fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share. On our lower near-term revenue and profit outlook, our fair value estimate falls to $74 per share from $76. Our narrow-moat rating is unchanged.On the bright side, management views the main headwinds discussed above as temporary. CEO Paul Manning contends that the fourth quarter will represent a "turning point" for the company, prior guidance for segment-level performance beyond 2018 remains in place. For the flavors and fragrances group, management guides to mid-single-digit revenue growth (we forecast only 3% growth through 2022) and high-single-digit profit growth (we forecast 9%). Regardless, we remain highly skeptical that the company's long-term 20% operating margin target for the segment is realistic. Our midcycle operating margin target is only 17%.
Profitability for the color group and Asia Pacific group has been a bit more steady, with third-quarter Asia Pacific margins being the sole bright spot in the earnings release. However, we see no major catalysts for margin expansion in these two businesses and actually assume that midcycle profitability for both will settle slightly below third-quarter levels.
Although Sensient's third-quarter performance was disappointing, we contend that investors have overreacted. Our long-term outlook is effectively unchanged, and we now view shares as undervalued.
Sensient Technologies is a manufacturer and marketer of colors, flavors and fragrances. The company's three reportable segments are: Flavors & Fragrances Group, which develops, manufactures, and supplies flavor and fragrance systems for the food, beverage, personal care, and household-products industries; Color Group, which provides natural and synthetic color systems for use in foods, beverages, pharmaceuticals, and nutraceuticals, colors and other ingredients for cosmetics; and Asia Pacific Group, which provides a range of products from its Flavors & Fragrances Group and Color Group, as well as products developed by regional technical teams to appeal to local preferences.
Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.
Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.
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