Morningstar | SFM Updated Star Rating from 02 Aug 2018
No-moat Sprouts posted solid second-quarter results, with net sales up 12% (tracking slightly above our low-double-digit outlook for the year) on 2% comparable-store sales growth, and gross margin contracting about 10 basis points to 28.8% (about 10 basis points above our full-year outlook), primarily due to lower merchandise margins in certain categories. We think the firm remains on track to meet our full-year expectations for 2% comparable-store sales growth and mid-single-digit operating margin. Our $1.25 diluted earnings per share estimate for the year remains above the low end of management's updated guidance ($1.24, from $1.22 prior), and we're maintaining our outlook for unit growth of around 30 stores, in line with management's expectations. As a result, we aren't expecting material changes to our $25.50 fair value estimate, which incorporates high-single-digit top-line growth and around 5% operating margin on average over our explicit forecast. Shares surged by a high-single digit percentage on the announcement and are now approaching our valuation.In our view, Sprouts' differentiated business model should support continued momentum in comparable-store sales, with our forecast calling for roughly 3% growth (about two thirds of which is driven by increased traffic). The company maintains entrenched relationships with its produce suppliers and self-distributes these offerings, allowing for a shortened inventory cycle (we estimate three to four days, versus up to a week across its peer set) and fresher fare relative to its competition. The company then passes on a portion of these gross margin savings to consumers via lower pricing (with produce typically priced 10%-20% below competitors), allowing for further momentum in traffic and better fixed-cost leverage. While we ultimately view this model to be replicable (preventing the firm from amassing a competitive edge), we posit in can drive above 2% annual traffic growth over our forecast period.
Sprouts Farmers Market operates as a healthy grocery store. The company categorizes the varieties of products it sells as perishable and non-perishable. Perishable product categories include produce, meat, seafood, deli, bakery, floral and dairy and dairy alternatives. Non-perishable product categories include grocery, vitamins and supplements, bulk items, frozen foods, beer and wine, and natural health and body care. The company's stores include the following departments: packaged groceries, meat and seafood, deli, vitamins and supplements, dairy and dairy alternatives, bulk items, baked goods, frozen foods, natural health and body care, and beer and wine.
Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.
Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.
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