Report
Rob Hales, CFA
EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

Solid 1Q for UPM on Energy Rebound and Rising Pulp Prices; Shares Overvalued

No-moat UPM reported a solid first quarter with EBIT of EUR 355 million, up 17% over the prior-year period and ahead of our estimate. However, the stock is trading down, indicating very high market expectations for UPM with the regulatory disruptions in China. EBIT in the energy business nearly doubled over the prior-year period, owing to cold weather in the Nordics driving electricity demand and an 18% increase in average prices for UPM. We adjust our near-term estimates to account for the impr...
Underlying
UPM-Kymmene Oyj

UPM-Kymmene is a global paper and forest products group, mainly engaged in the production of paper, with an emphasis on the manufacture and sale of printing and writing papers. Co.'s operations comprise of these segments: UPM Biorefining, UPM Energy, UPM Raflatac, UPM Paper Asia, UPM Paper ENA, UPM Plywood and Other. UPM Biocomposites, UPM Biochemicals business units and Group services are reported in Other operations. Co.'s activities are centred in European Union countries, North and South America and Asia with production plants in 13 countries.

Provider
Morningstar
Morningstar

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.

Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.

We have operations in 27 countries.

Analysts
Rob Hales, CFA

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