Vale generates profits even given the decline in iron ore prices, owing to its low-cost production.
While high iron ore prices kept Vale's cash flows elevated in the first quarter, we expect declining prices will drive down cash flows going forward. Since our April 5 note calling for lower iron ore prices, the iron ore price has fallen 18%, from $81.0 per tonne to $66.6 per tonne, and Vale's share price has fallen about 15%, from $9.86 to $8.41. We continue to expect 23% downside for iron ore prices to $51 by 2018 and a total of 47% downside to our $35 midcycle forecast by 2019. We forecast ab...
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