No-moat Viva Energy Follows Caltex Into the Confessional. No Change to AUD 3.00 FVE.
Our AUD 3.00 fair value estimate is unchanged despite lowering our 2019 replacement cost NPAT forecast by 7.5% to AUD 242 million, including on an equity basis Viva Energy REIT and Liberty Oil earnings contributions. The cause of the decline is a relapse in refiner margins to historically low levels. However, we don’t think such low levels are sustainable and our long-term forecasts stand. Viva Energy shares fell 9% last week in sympathy with peer Caltex’s disappointing earnings guidance, and at...Viva Energy Group Ltd. Viva Energy Group Ltd is an Australia-based integrated downstream petroleum company. The Company operates across three business segments: Retail, Fuels and Marketing; Refining; and Supply, Corporate and Overheads. Retail, Fuels and Marketing segment consists of retail and commercial operations. Retail, which supplies and markets fuel products and lubricants through a national network sites. Commercial, which supplies of fuel, lubricants and specialty products to commercial customers. Refining segment owns and operates the Geelong Refinery, in Victoria, which converts imported and locally sourced crude oil into petroleum products including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, aviation gasoline, gas, solvents, bitumen and other specialty products. Supply, Corporate and Overheads segment owns contracted access to a national infrastructure network comprising terminals, retail sites, storage tanks, depots and pipelines positioned across metropolitan and regional Australia.
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