reports
VIVA ENERGY GROUP sees an upgrade to Slightly Positive due to a better...
The general evaluation of VIVA ENERGY GROUP (AU), a company active in the Oil Equipment & Services industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 4 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date February 8, 2022, the closi...
- Mark Taylor
Morningstar | No-moat Viva Energy Follows Caltex Into the Confessional...
Our AUD 3.00 fair value estimate is unchanged despite lowering our 2019 replacement cost NPAT forecast by 7.5% to AUD 242 million, including on an equity basis Viva Energy REIT and Liberty Oil earnings contributions. The cause of the decline is a relapse in refiner margins to historically low levels. However, we don’t think such low levels are sustainable and our long-term forecasts stand. Viva Energy shares fell 9% last week in sympathy with peer Caltex’s disappointing earnings guidance, an...
- Mark Taylor
No-moat Viva Energy Follows Caltex Into the Confessional. No Change to...
Our AUD 3.00 fair value estimate is unchanged despite lowering our 2019 replacement cost NPAT forecast by 7.5% to AUD 242 million, including on an equity basis Viva Energy REIT and Liberty Oil earnings contributions. The cause of the decline is a relapse in refiner margins to historically low levels. However, we don’t think such low levels are sustainable and our long-term forecasts stand. Viva Energy shares fell 9% last week in sympathy with peer Caltex’s disappointing earnings guidance, an...
- Mark Taylor
Morningstar | Refiner Margins Head in the Right Direction; Now for All...
No-moat Viva Energy’s share price has taken tentative steps toward a recovery following a rout precipitated by a corrected dysfunction in the Coles alliance, and exacerbated by the collapse of regional refining margins. At AUD 2.30, the shares are 35% above December AUD 1.70 lows, although they remain below 2018’s AUD 2.50 IPO price and even further below our unchanged AUD 3.00 fair value estimate. Regional refining margins fell sharply from the second half of 2018 because of an oversupply ...
- Mark Taylor
Morningstar | Refiner Margins Head in the Right Direction; Now for All...
No-moat Viva Energy’s share price has taken tentative steps toward a recovery following a rout precipitated by a corrected dysfunction in the Coles alliance, and exacerbated by the collapse of regional refining margins. At AUD 2.30, the shares are 35% above December AUD 1.70 lows, although they remain below 2018’s AUD 2.50 IPO price and even further below our unchanged AUD 3.00 fair value estimate. Regional refining margins fell sharply from the second half of 2018 because of an oversupply ...
- Mark Taylor
Refiner Margins Head in the Right Direction; Now for Alliance Volumes....
No-moat Viva Energy’s share price has taken tentative steps toward a recovery following a rout precipitated by a corrected dysfunction in the Coles alliance, and exacerbated by the collapse of regional refining margins. At AUD 2.30, the shares are 35% above December AUD 1.70 lows, although they remain below 2018’s AUD 2.50 IPO price and even further below our unchanged AUD 3.00 fair value estimate. Regional refining margins fell sharply from the second half of 2018 because of an oversupply o...
- Mark Taylor
Morningstar | Viva Announces Ongoing 2019 Challenges but our AUD 3.00 ...
We make no change to our AUD 3.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Viva Energy. This is despite lowering our 2019 EPS forecast by 20% to AUD 0.13 from AUD 0.16. We don’t see long-term implications in the drivers, with Viva still only in the early stages of implementing strategies to improve retail price competitiveness following the previously discussed re-jig of the Coles Express agreement. Viva says its retail business continues to struggle with challenging trading conditions impacting retai...
- Mark Taylor
Viva Announces Ongoing 2019 Challenges but our AUD 3.00 FVE Stands
We make no change to our AUD 3.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Viva Energy. This is despite lowering our 2019 EPS forecast by 20% to AUD 0.13 from AUD 0.16. We don’t see long-term implications in the drivers, with Viva still only in the early stages of implementing strategies to improve retail price competitiveness following the previously discussed re-jig of the Coles Express agreement. Viva says its retail business continues to struggle with challenging trading conditions impacting retail...
- Mark Taylor
Morningstar | Lower 2018 NPAT Beats our Target and No-Moat Viva Energy...
We make no change to our AUD 3.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Viva Energy. The company reported a 24% decline in underlying 2018 replacement cost operating profit to AUD 293 million. While this was around 12% ahead of our AUD 263 million expectations, there are no implications for our longer-term outlook. Viva paid a better than anticipated AUD 4.8 cent second-half dividend, with an as-expected 60% payout but on 12% better earnings. The retail, fuels & marketing segment reported a better th...
- Mark Taylor
Lower 2018 NPAT Beats our Target and No-Moat Viva Energy Is Primed for...
We make no change to our AUD 3.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Viva Energy. The company reported a 24% decline in underlying 2018 replacement cost operating profit to AUD 293 million. While this was around 12% ahead of our AUD 263 million expectations, there are no implications for our longer-term outlook. Viva paid a better than anticipated AUD 4.8 cent second-half dividend, with an as-expected 60% payout but on 12% better earnings. The retail, fuels & marketing segment reported a better...
- Mark Taylor
Morningstar | Viva Sensibly Resets Alliance with Coles Express includi...
We make no change to our AUD 3.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Viva Energy. Our fair value didn’t anticipate the Coles impasse with associated volume degradation would persist. Viva and Coles have allowed common sense to prevail and rearranged their Coles Express retail alliance. Viva Energy will take full responsibility for retail fuel pricing and marketing, while Coles Express will remain responsible for operating the stores and provide the convenience offering. Viva will now collect the ...
- Mark Taylor
Morningstar | Better Coles Express interest alignment and right to pri...
There is a lot to like about Viva Energy's business. The firm enjoys a strategically advantaged infrastructure base from which to refine, store, and distribute fuel across Australia. It has a market-leading position in Victoria, and near-market-leading positions in most other Australian states. It is the second-largest refined fuel supplier in Australia at 14.2 billion litres or 24% share of the 60 billion litre market overall, second only to largest player Caltex Australia Limited with approxim...
- Mark Taylor
Viva Sensibly Resets Alliance with Coles Express including Right-to-Pr...
We make no change to our AUD 3.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Viva Energy. Our fair value didn’t anticipate the Coles impasse with associated volume degradation would persist. Viva and Coles have allowed common sense to prevail and rearranged their Coles Express retail alliance. Viva Energy will take full responsibility for retail fuel pricing and marketing, while Coles Express will remain responsible for operating the stores and provide the convenience offering. Viva will now collect the ...
- Mark Taylor
Better Coles Express interest alignment and right to price fuel suppor...
We make no change to our AUD 3.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Viva Energy. The company has again downgraded fiscal 2018 earnings guidance due to weaker-than-expected regional refiner margins. But we hold to our longer-term view, including assumed reversion of the refiner margin to a midcycle USD 9.00 per barrel in real terms. Viva says the actual refiner margin for December was just USD 3.30 per barrel, driven lower due to gasoline cracks falling on excess regional supply. Consequently, the ...
- Mark Taylor
Morningstar | Viva Energy Group: Another Late Earnings Downgrade on Pe...
We make no change to our AUD 3.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Viva Energy. The company has again downgraded fiscal 2018 earnings guidance due to weaker-than-expected regional refiner margins. But we hold to our longer-term view, including assumed reversion of the refiner margin to a midcycle USD 9.00 per barrel in real terms. Viva says the actual refiner margin for December was just USD 3.30 per barrel, driven lower due to gasoline cracks falling on excess regional supply. Consequently, the ...
- Mark Taylor
Viva Energy Group: Another Late Earnings Downgrade on Persisting Low R...
We make no change to our AUD 3.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Viva Energy. The company has again downgraded fiscal 2018 earnings guidance due to weaker-than-expected regional refiner margins. But we hold to our longer-term view, including assumed reversion of the refiner margin to a midcycle USD 9.00 per barrel in real terms. Viva says the actual refiner margin for December was just USD 3.30 per barrel, driven lower due to gasoline cracks falling on excess regional supply. Consequently, the ...
- Mark Taylor
Morningstar | Market Vents on Viva Earnings Downgrade and Coles Allian...
We make no change to our AUD 3.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Viva Energy. The company downgraded fiscal 2018 earnings guidance due to weaker than expected regional refiner margins, together with lost refinery production due to disruption in electricity supply. Further, high crude prices, a weak Australian dollar, and an impasse with alliance partner Coles, are crimping retail earnings. While disappointing, we view none as likely to persist and our midcycle assumptions stand. We downgrade ou...
- Mark Taylor
Market Vents on Viva Earnings Downgrade and Coles Alliance. Our FVE Un...
We make no change to our AUD 3.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Viva Energy. The company downgraded fiscal 2018 earnings guidance due to weaker than expected regional refiner margins, together with lost refinery production due to disruption in electricity supply. Further, high crude prices, a weak Australian dollar, and an impasse with alliance partner Coles, are crimping retail earnings. While disappointing, we view none as likely to persist and our midcycle assumptions stand. We downgrade ou...
- Mark Taylor
Morningstar | Viva Energy Creditably Beats Prospectus Guidance Despite...
We make no change to our AUD 3.00 per share fair value estimate for no-moat Viva Energy. First-half 2018 replacement cost operating profit, or RCOP, of AUD 145 million creditably beat prospectus forecast of AUD 138 million by AUD 7.0 million or 5%. We include equity earnings from Viva Energy REIT and Liberty Oil, which Viva excludes from its RCOP estimate. The earnings beat was all the more impressive given a weaker-than-expected Geelong Refining Margin of USD 7.30 per barrel versus prospectus f...
- Mark Taylor
Viva Energy Creditably Beats Prospectus Guidance Despite Soft 1H Refin...
We make no change to our AUD 3.00 per share fair value estimate for no-moat Viva Energy. First-half 2018 replacement cost operating profit, or RCOP, of AUD 145 million creditably beat prospectus forecast of AUD 138 million by AUD 7.0 million or 5%. We include equity earnings from Viva Energy REIT and Liberty Oil, which Viva excludes from its RCOP estimate. The earnings beat was all the more impressive given a weaker-than-expected Geelong Refining Margin of USD 7.30 per barrel versus prospectus f...
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