Morningstar | Workday's Expansion Into Financials Drives Positive Subscription Revenue Outlook; Raise FVE to $167
Workday ended fiscal 2019 by posting another strong quarter, driven by growth in financial management applications. The financials story is a familiar one for Workday. As with human capital management, large enterprises are looking to Workday as they take financials to the cloud, helping Workday net four new Fortune 500 financial management customers in the quarter. We maintain our narrow moat and positive trend ratings for Workday. We plan to raise our fair value estimate to $167 per share due to the time value of money as we roll our valuation model, but we still view the shares as overvalued.The key development in the quarter in financials, which is still growing over 50% year over year, is the "financials first" trend, with enterprises increasingly beginning their Workday relationship as financial management customers. We believe this reinforces our positive moat trend rating, with satisfied financials customers likely to adopt Workday’s best-of-breed HCM solution as well, increasing switching costs. Workday also reported improving revenue per customer due to adoption of additional modules, which should bolster switching costs.
Management provided fiscal 2020 subscription revenue guidance of $3.03 billion-$3.045 billion, representing 27%-28% growth over fiscal 2019. Total revenue guidance for fiscal 2020 was $3.53 billion-$3.545 billion, slightly below our prior expectation of $3.6 billion. We think fiscal 2020 could be a big year for cross-selling existing customers on applications like planning tool Adaptive Insights, acquired in August 2018, and Prism Analytics. While adoption of either product would increase customer stickiness, Prism, Workday’s data-as-a-service offering, could present an interesting test case for expected adoption of Adaptive over the next several years. Prism, which management disclosed has been adopted by less than 10% of customers, is built on code acquired via Workday’s 2016 purchase of Platfora.
Workday is a provider of enterprise cloud applications for finance and human resources. The company's products include: Workday Financial Management, an application with financial capabilities, analytics and metrics, and auditable process management; and Workday Human Capital Management, which includes global human resources management (workforce lifecycle management, organization management, compensation, absence, and employee benefits administration) and global talent management (goal management, performance management, succession planning, and career and development planning). The company's other solutions include Adaptive Insights Business Planning Cloud, as well as Workday Data-as-a-Service.
Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.
Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.
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