2025-26 Gold Outlook

Since the 2008 financial crisis the gold market has fundamentally changed with two of the most important changes being: - The liberalization and rapid development of the Chinese gold market. - Central banks turning into net buyers of gold. During that period prices have been mainly driven by a combination of: Asian consumer demand, central bank demand and the more historic Western investor demand and the relationship with US yields. Since 2022 , the market has seen an additional change (albeit a temporary one) which is the breakdown in correlations between gold prices and US yields (along with western investor demand). Into 2024, for at least the first half of the year we saw that the Western market was no longer necessarily the main driver behind the price discovery of gold. In fact, this shifted to China which drove prices higher and this despite strong outflows by western investors. In this report we review 2024 and give our outlook for the next two years.