2Y UST-Schatz Widener

Recently, there has been much more uncertainty about inflation in the United States than in the Euro Area, and as long as this uncertainty remains high, it will likely lead to a "higher for longer" approach for the US. Despite this, the market continues to doubt the ECB's ability to act independently from the Fed. We expect that the two central banks will make divergent monetary policy decisions in the near future, largely due to their data-driven approach. This is likely to lead to a wider spread between the 2Y UST and the Schatz in the coming months. We’ll express this idea using future contracts. We set the target of the strategy at 230bp and the stop loss at 185bp. Horizon of the trade idea is 3 months.