Election 2024: Tax cut extensions likely; fiscal future shaky

“Blessed are the young for they shall inherit the national debt” Herbert Hoover The defining fiscal policy agenda item up for debate in the 2024 election i s the looming expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). While most of the TCJA will likely be extended, the specifics will depend not only on who wins the presidency, but also the make-up of Congress. In any scenario, budget deficits will remain large, as elected officials refuse to acknowledge the weakening fiscal outlook.

Euro area: April composite PMI increases strongly

The composite PMI rose further in April, surpassing expectations of a moderate increase. The improvement was driven by the services sector, while sentiment in the manufacturing sector remains depressed. This divergence is worrisome, but there is no denying that this is an overall solid report, consistent with a gain of momentum of the euro aera economy at the beginning of the second quarter.

未だマイナス圏にある日本の中立金利は、日銀の超緩和策からの脱却が極めて遅いことを示唆