A back-to-work season more complicated than expected – What real time indicators say #14

While the economic situation seems to be stabilizing so far in Europe, the back-to-work season is more challenging than usual , due to a more problematic than expected evolution of the epidemic during the summer . Indeed, the number of new cases continues to increase in recent days in European countries, leading to a hardening of health restriction measures . We resume our weekly publications of real time indicators by taking stock this week of three major elements that characterize this period : In Europe, the epidemic situation is increasingly worr isome , particularly in France and in Spain, which account for approximately 5,000 and 6,500 new daily cases respectively. The situation in the United States has improved slightly , with just over 40,000 new cases per day, compared to above 60,000 in July. Health restrictions are gradually tightening again in most European countries. Several measures have, for example, been put in place over the past few days, such as the obligation to wear masks in the Paris area and in several French cities. However, the economy continues to catch up after the lockdown: Google mobility reports show an increase in attendance in all countries and leading indicators in recent weeks indicate a clear improvement in the economic situation in Europe.