Report
A comparison of real long-term interest rates today and in anti-inflation periods of the past
We look at 10-year real interest rates, calculated as the differential between the 10-year nominal interest rate and the 10-year inflation swap (measuring expected 10-year inflation), in the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom . We seek to determine to what level the real interest rate, thus defined, had to be raised in the past when central banks really wanted to fight inflation, while trying to get an indication of the level to which real interest rates will have to rise this time around. This "anti-inflation" real long-term interest rate was: At least 2% in the United States (compared with 0% today); 2% in Germany (compared with -1.5% today); 2% in the United Kingdom (compared with -2.5% today).
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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