A downward correction in financial and real estate markets when economies improve?
The degree of underemployment in OECD countries will remain significant until at least the end of 2022. This means that in 2021 and 2022, interest rates will still be low and the money supply will grow significantly, so there will still be upward pressure on financial and real estate asset prices. But beyond the end of 2022, we believe monetary conditions will tighten: Central banks in OECD countries will see the end of underemployment; A few structural inflation factors may appear; Public opinion will protest against the increase in wealth inequality. We can therefore expect a downward correction in asset prices at a time when economies emerge from underemployment, which may seem paradoxical. This will not, however, be a crisis as central banks will not allow a sharp rise in long-term interest rates