A growth slowdown in the United States will probably be the shock that will cause a downturn in the global economy and financial markets

The global economy is now living with numerous threats: a growth slowdown in China, destabilising capital outflows from emerging countries, protectionism and sanctions, the political crisis in Europe, Brexit and the oil price. But for the time being, the strong growth of the US economy is stabilising the global economy and financial markets. This strong growth will not last: the return of the US economy to full employment will, at best, bring US growth back to the lower level of potential growth. This could be the shock that triggers a downturn in global growth and financial markets worldwide.