A manufacturing recession could trigger an overall recession: The case of the euro zone

Industry in the euro zone is clearly in recession, due to the slowdown in global trade and the specific problems of certain industries (auto motive , chemicals, industrial capital goods). Should we then predict a global recession despite a positive macroeconomic environment (zero interest rates, more expansionary fiscal policy, high corporate profitability, real wage growth )? We have to look at: The effect on investment, which amplifies the industrial shock; The weight of industry and services consumed by industry; The effect of the industrial recession on total domestic demand and total employment; The possible effect on household s’ confidence and savings rate. The most worrying is perhaps the correlation between the situation of industry and the household savings rate.