A paradox: Globalisation is advancing at the same time as political discord is mounting and economic models are diverging between the United States, Europe and China

When we look at foreign trade flows between the United States, Europe and China, we now see very vigorous growth in trade between these three regions, which can be related to the increase in the weight of goods relative to services in demand. One can therefore talk of a recovery in globalisation, thanks to very rapid growth in global trade. But we also see growing discord between these countries on geopolitical issues (China’s presence in the South China Sea, Australian submarine affair between Europe and the United States), diverging economic models (China’s state capitalism, Europe’s attempt at a more inclusive capitalism than in the United States) , technological competition and the rise of national preference. So what will happen in the medium term if these regions are increasingly in conflict at the same time as they trade more and more with one another?