Report
A permanent return of emerging risk?
Could the war in Ukraine bring back emerging risk in a permanent way? The shock was, of course, the realisation that a country as highly integrated into globalisation as Russia could suddenly exit globalisation, generating heavy losses for investors and companies. We are now seeing a sharp rise in emerging risk (exchange rate depreciation, widening of emerging country CDS, decline in equity markets, etc.), but is this permanent? How long have periods of high perception of emerging risk lasted in the past, from the perspective of companies and investors? We see that these periods have always been short (6 months to 1.5 year): very quickly, capital flows return, the exchange rate appreciates, share prices rise and risk premia tighten.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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