Report
Patrick Artus

A question that will become crucial: Confidence in the currency

The coronavirus crisis is going to give rise to very large and lasting fiscal deficits, first to respond to the crisis and then to kick-start the economy. For these fiscal deficits to not lead to a sharp rise in long-term interest rates, due to excess supply of public-sector bonds over demand (the level of savings is sufficient, but the share of government bonds in savings is too low), central banks must buy a large share of the government bonds issued and monetise them. The entire edifice of this support for the economy therefore rests on confidence in the currency , as economic agents must be willing to hold much more money and invest a growing share of their savings in money. If, given the abundant money creation, economic agents lose confidence in the currency , they will not be willing to hold the money issued by the central bank and fiscal deficit monetisation will become impossible. What indicators might there be of a potential loss of confidence in public currencies? Possibly the gold price and the price of cryptocurrencies.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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