Report
Patrick Artus

A “quiet” economy is required to end zero interest rates

If interest rates in the euro zone are kept at zero or negative , they would end up triggering a crisis (life insurance crisis, bursting of the real estate bubble) . A drastic rise in interest rates would generate unsustainable capital losses for bond holders and a loss of borrower solvency. The only solution to end zero interest rates in the euro zone is therefore a gradual and enduring rise in interest rates (30 basis points per year for 10 years?). This requires a "quiet" economy for 10 years: No drastic rise in inflation that would require rapid rate hikes ; No decline in growth that would require an end to the normalisation of interest rates (as can be seen currently in the United States).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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