Report
Patrick Artus

A reminder that a lasting rise in inflation would now lead to a disastrous crisis

The current surge in inflation in the United States and to a lesser degree in Europe is most likely temporary and not lasting, and is therefore unlikely to lead to a visible rise in interest rates. But it is an opportunity to point out that if inflation did rise for a long time, which would inevitably require a central bank response and a significant rate hike, the result would be a very drastic crisis. The economy and finance have organised themselves as if low interest rates were to be permanent, since in OECD countries there are: Very high levels of fiscal deficits and debt ratios; A sharp increase in corporate leverage, due to the increase in debt and share buybacks; A high level of asset prices and company valuations (especially in the United States). A lasting return of inflation would therefore trigger a debt crisis, a banking crisis, a real estate crisis, a massive wealth loss, a decline in investment by companies that would want to deleverage, etc.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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