A reminder that a lasting rise in inflation would now lead to a disastrous crisis
The current surge in inflation in the United States and to a lesser degree in Europe is most likely temporary and not lasting, and is therefore unlikely to lead to a visible rise in interest rates. But it is an opportunity to point out that if inflation did rise for a long time, which would inevitably require a central bank response and a significant rate hike, the result would be a very drastic crisis. The economy and finance have organised themselves as if low interest rates were to be permanent, since in OECD countries there are: Very high levels of fiscal deficits and debt ratios; A sharp increase in corporate leverage, due to the increase in debt and share buybacks; A high level of asset prices and company valuations (especially in the United States). A lasting return of inflation would therefore trigger a debt crisis, a banking crisis, a real estate crisis, a massive wealth loss, a decline in investment by companies that would want to deleverage, etc.