Report
Patrick Artus

A series of unexpected crises: Everything should be indexed to GDP (interest rates, wages, rents, etc.)

OECD countries are experiencing a series of unexpected crises (subprime, COVID) during which aggregate income falls. Very significant distortions then appear. This is because interest payments on debt, wages and rents were fixed before these crises occurred. When the crisis hits, borrowers, companies and tenants are faced with a fall in their income, while interest payments , wages and rents paid remain the same. This gives rise to borrower defaults, corporate bankruptcies, redundancies, and tenants being unable to meet their rental costs. In an ideal and flexible world, interest payments, wages an d rents would be indexed to nominal GDP, and would be lower in recessions and higher in growth periods. Unexpected recessions would then not create distortions, and the distribution of the overall income (GDP) loss between different groups of economic agents would be equitable.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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