Report
Patrick Artus

A sharp appreciation of the euro against the dollar is possible: What would the consequences be?

It is possible that we are now entering a period of sharp euro appreciation against the dollar, due to the United States’ growing external debt, the policies th at Joe Biden would conduct if elected, the trend in the euro zone towards using its own savings, the fact that monetary policy is even more expansionary in the United States than in the euro zone, the return of capital flows to emerging countries and the questions being raised over US leadership. What would happen if the euro appreciated sharply against the dollar like from 2002 to 2008? Euro-zone industry would be weakened and would lose market share, although this is not what happened from 2002 to 2008; economywide growth in the euro zone would be boosted by the improvement in the terms of trade; The e arnings per share expressed in euros and share prices of European companies would suffer, but this did not happen from 2002 to 2008 either; The ECB would have one more reason to persevere with its expansionary monetary policy; The yield spread between the dollar and the euro would widen.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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