After adjusting for base effects and the impact of the fall in import prices, inflation will be well above 2% at cruising speed in the euro zone

When we measure inflation in the euro zone: By the rise in consumer prices adjusted for the fall in import prices; Or by the rise in the GDP deflator (in total value added ); we can see that ' true ' inflation is still considerably above 2% (it is between 3.7% and 5%) and is slow to decelerate . Since the fall in import prices is likely to disappear in six months, this implies that real core inflation in the euro zone will remain well above 2% (at the end of 2024, it will probably be from 3% to 3.5% according to the calculation method) and that it is only by assuming that import prices will continue to fall that we can conclude that the ECB has leeway to cut its interest rates.